In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
- Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
- Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion
- Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More
- Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital
- Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): Net Profit Doubles in 1H On Daybue Acceleration; Guidance Restated
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again
- Kinatico Ltd – Record profits, RaaS forecasts beat
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
- On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range.
- At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory.
- However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up.
Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer at A$0.88/share with an 11% spread, supported by founder Dr. Chris Richards.
- Plymouth Industrial REIT has a $24.10/share bid from Sixth Street Capital, with a 14-15% spread and board review ongoing.
- DallasNews has two takeover offers: $15/share from Hearst and $18.5/share from Alden, requiring two-thirds shareholder approval.
Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion
- Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close.
- Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment.
- Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.
Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, with a current spread of 11%.
- YORK announced a merger with CRO token issuance, with each YORK share representing approximately 47 CRO tokens.
- Pacific Current Group’s FY25 results show a 28% discount to NAV, with potential capital allocation concerns.
Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, representing a 60% premium.
- Adamantem has 30 days of exclusivity for due diligence, with support from AHX’s largest shareholder and founder.
- AHX’s enterprise value is A$220m, aligning with Adamantem’s typical transaction size and strategic acquisition interests.
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): Net Profit Doubles in 1H On Daybue Acceleration; Guidance Restated
- Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU) announced stellar financial performance for 1H25, with doubling of net profit on high-teens revenue growth. Royalty income from Daybue grew 16% YoY to A$28.3M.
- The number of unique patients receiving a Daybue shipment continued to grow and in 2Q25 reached a record high of 987, up from 954 in 1Q25 and 920 in 4Q24.
- Assuming partner’s guidance is met and an exchange rate of 0.65, Neuren anticipates earning U.S. royalties of A$62–67M, up 15% YoY at mid-point in 2025.
Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix’s mine life.
- Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile.
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price).
Kinatico Ltd – Record profits, RaaS forecasts beat
- Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
- The company has reported a 50% increase in FY25 adjusted NPAT to $1.5m, almost 30% ahead of our forecast for the year.
- Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $4.7m, up 21% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) on the previously reported 12% increase in revenue to $32.1m.
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