In today’s briefing:
- ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Meitu Inc (1357 HK): AI a Threat? Not Really – Long-Term Compounder Driven by Dual Growth Engines
- Full Truck Alliance Q325 Results: Trimming Freight Brokerage Services Means Slower Near-Term Growth
- CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited
- Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
- Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
- Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.
Meitu Inc (1357 HK): AI a Threat? Not Really – Long-Term Compounder Driven by Dual Growth Engines
- Meitu’s business model is not threatened by new AI image generation models. Long-term positioning remains intact. Last-mile workflows, a seventeen-year aesthetic dataset, and stable founder-led execution sustainable clear Moats.
- Overseas markets offer materially higher pay-ratios and ARPU. Productivity and e-commerce tools drive the mix shift toward high-margin growth. Both support multi-year revenue compounding independent of AI capex cycles.
- Recent Correction due to AI substitution fears drove the multiple to ~27x, placing PEG below 1x on 30% CAGR. Long-term buy with 100% upside and potential for strong re-rating.
Full Truck Alliance Q325 Results: Trimming Freight Brokerage Services Means Slower Near-Term Growth
- The company’s decision to de-emphasize Freight Brokerage Services undermined Q3 results
- The rest of the company’s reporting segments performed well in all respects
- Look for opportunity to buy YMM shares at US$9/ADS or better
CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited
- CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 9M25 revenue dropped 12% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.
- Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.
- CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. Pivotal data read outs awaited.
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Xiao Noodles’ advantage doesn’t come from a single product, but from a set of replicable systematic capabilities.However, investors are concerned growth is driven by capital rather than endogenous healthy growth.
- Valuation would be lower than those mature brands that have proven profitability in the short term, but would be higher than the companies that are still exploring profit paths.
- Comfortable valuation could be P/E of 15-20x, which indicates arbitrage space. But in long term, business model will be difficult to sustain if there’s no breakthrough in profit margin performance.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
