In today’s briefing:
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Mixue (2097 HK): Time to Buy After Lemon Stockout
- Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
- Berkshire Hathaway Dumps All Its Stake in BYD – Impact on the Chery Auto IPO
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Still Volatile
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Some Names Are Close to the Border
- Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): Changhong Group’s Preconditional Scheme at HK$1.223
- HK CEO/Director Dealings (22 Sep 2025): TYK Medicine, Chanjet’s Full Circulation, Bonjour, Shunten
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: Some Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; US$362mn One-Way
- HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
- The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Mixue (2097 HK): Time to Buy After Lemon Stockout
- The one-week lemon shortage did not impact the stock price.
- The stock price has plunged for three months to HK$395 from the peak HK$618.
- The revenue growth and the margin were healthy in 1H25.
Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
- At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
- At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.
Berkshire Hathaway Dumps All Its Stake in BYD – Impact on the Chery Auto IPO
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway completely exited its stake in BYD (1211 HK).
- We highlight four major reasons why Berkshire may have exited its entire position including valuations, tariffs, competition and lower profit margins, and greater risk prospects on economic stagnation in China.
- Berkshire selling all its stake in BYD is likely to have a slightly negative impact on the Chery Auto IPO. However, we maintain a Positive view of Chery Auto IPO.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Still Volatile
- “Beautiful Skew” nowhere this past week. The meat of the wider parts of the AH premia curve saw Hs underperform even as liquid Hs outperformed As average by 0.6%.
- Last week’s long reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 6.56%. It was a bad week.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Some Names Are Close to the Border
- CSI All Share Semiconductors Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect up to five ADDs and one DEL for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.
Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): Changhong Group’s Preconditional Scheme at HK$1.223
- Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK) announced a preconditional privatisation offer from Changhong Group, the controlling shareholder, at HK$1.223, a 32.9% premium to the last close price.
- Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and the headcount test. The offer is final.
- Two shareholders hold blocking stakes – one has provided an irrevocable, and the other is SOE-linked. The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. Timing is the key risk.
HK CEO/Director Dealings (22 Sep 2025): TYK Medicine, Chanjet’s Full Circulation, Bonjour, Shunten
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
- These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: Some Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; US$362mn One-Way
- CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect up to six ADDs and six DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.
HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended
- After a 33.9% rally off the April lows HSI is starting to flash caution across a variety of metrics.
- Weak breadth and option exuberance at the single stock level are additional areas of concern.
- We outline the technical backdrop and recommend hedge strategies given the current level of implied vols.
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