In today’s briefing:
- Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
- Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading
- Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)
Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
- Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
- The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
- We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.
Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading
- Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for Tencent (700 HK) has declined from recent peaks, aligning near its 3-year median, indicating a potential stabilization in market expectations.
- Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The term structure is largely flat with a slight uplift due to the upcoming earnings on 14 May 2025. A pronounced volatility smile favors spreads.
- Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in near-term (April, May) and quarterly expiries, with call open interest slightly outweighing puts (48-60%).
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CMBI and CLSA.
- It’s a leading Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China, operating under the Xiao Noodles brand, offering value-for-money cuisines.
- Under its dual model of corporate-owned and franchising, it focuses on corporate-owned restaurants in first-tier & new first-tier cities in China.
Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.
- Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.
Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
- Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
- Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)
- March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
- Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
- But express “story” generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba
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