In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot
- STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
- 3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars
- Pre-IPO Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels – The Pain Points and the Outlook
- ImmVira (亦诺微) Pre-IPO: Niche Product, but the Indication Is Limited
A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
- AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
- Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
- Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
- Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
- We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
- Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.
3SBio (1530 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Stock Soars
- 3SBio Inc (1530 HK)‘s stock price has soared over the last couple of months, and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.
- 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has gone from middle/bottom of the pack to best performer among its peer group over the last two months.
- There will be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.
Pre-IPO Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels – The Pain Points and the Outlook
- In 25Q1, Jin Jiang did not show a turning point in performance.There’s uncertainty about whether 2025 performance target can be achieved due to low efficiency of membership system/weak overseas business.
- The growth of the core mid-to-low end economic market is weak.The transition to the high-end market or international expansion is difficult to shoulder the banner of growth in short term.
- Valuation of Jin Jiang could be lower than Atour and H World Group, who have found new development paths and growth points.A relatively conservative valuation range is P/E of 15-18x.
ImmVira (亦诺微) Pre-IPO: Niche Product, but the Indication Is Limited
- ImmVira, a China-based clinical-stage biotech, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The joint book runners are CITI and CICC.
- In this insight, we look at the company’s core product, MVR-T3011, including its mechanism and clinical data.
- We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.
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