In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi
- Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK
- Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
- MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade
- Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
- Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March
- Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
- We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March
- Back on the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
- The (then) HK$1.116/share implied scrip price & divvy compared to a book value of HK1.736/share. and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share. At the 22nd January EGM, GNH shareholders backed the Offer.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 7th March, with new GNH shares trading on the 7th April. The IFA (Veda Capital) botched its peer analysis.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK
- AH Premia are lower over the last two weeks spanning the CNY holiday. HK stocks up. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
- The past two weeks saw Consumer and Financial AH premia drop. Utilities, energy, and Industrials widened slightly on average. Narrow premia AH dropped more than wide premia.
- AH Premia on average at a new five year low. Some may be foreigners returning to HK. Some may be just drift. Many wide spreads still exist.
Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
- CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb.
- There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There’re concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&D failure risks.
- After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
- We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
- Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade
- The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) Index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
- We expect four changes for the HSIII index in March 2025.
Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
- The security is expected to be added at the global index’s March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry’s fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
- The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March
- Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)’s IFA opines that Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH)’s offer (4 GNH shares per GNF share + HK$0.50 dividend) is fair and reasonable.
- The GNF vote required approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote is low risk.
- The spread remains high as GNH is not shortable. At the last close, for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 10.2%/89.3%.
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March
- Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March.
- The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
- Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.
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