In today’s briefing:
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open
- Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
- [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
- Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
- Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
- Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization
- Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
- There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
- Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
- Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open
- On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
- The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
- There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August.
Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
- 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
- Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
- In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.
[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
- Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns.
- As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
- Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;
Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
- Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
- It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
- Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
- In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product namely efsubaglutide alfa, and updates in various filings.
- In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s core product.
Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization
- Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CITIC.
- The company refiled its prospectus and dropped VV116, the commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug, from its core asset list.
- In this note, we look at changes between filings and also further examine the prospect of LV232 and TPN171.
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists
- Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company’s equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company’s prospects.
- Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.
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