Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro, Microport Scientific, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., Jinke Smart Services, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Alibaba, Tencent, NIO , Iron Ore and more

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
• Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
• In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. 
• My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
• The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. 

• Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK).
• Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• With the pre-cons squared away as per the 3rd September announcement, the key risk to Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)‘s Offer is the Scheme vote. 
• The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an uninspiring 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high. And peers are down 10% on average since the Offer.
• A persual of the s329 investigative reports provides a significantly clearer picture on who holds what.

• On the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
• At an auction, the Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke, subject to CSDC oversight. Approval was received on the 19th September.
• The Composite Document is now out, and shareholders, should they so choose, can tender. The first close is the 17th October. The Offer may get extended.  I doubt it. 

• Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
• Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
• Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

• Alibaba Group has announced an aggressive expansion of its artificial intelligence ambitions, earmarking over $50 billion in new AI and cloud investments over the next three years—an amount greater than its entire spending over the last decade.
• This significant push is aimed at positioning the company at the forefront of Asia’s generative AI and cloud infrastructure race.
• Central to this effort is the launch of its next-generation large language model, Qwen3-Max, following the success of Qwen2.5, which already has over 90,000 derivative models globally.

• China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September. 

• NIO is a prominent player in China’s premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.
• The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.
• Future success hinges on management’s ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.

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• Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
• Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
• Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.