In today’s briefing:
- NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering
- NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: One Index Change Likely; US$650mn One-Way with Capping
- NIO HK/ADS Placement – Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn
- BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 10)
- Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison
- China Mobile (941 HK): Tactical Outlook as HKBN Deal Unfolds
- Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): Minorities Out of Options as the Offer Opens
- Chery Auto IPO PHIP Update & Review
- Chery Auto Pre-IPO: More Discounts Than Price War Starter
NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering
- NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
- The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
- There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.
NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise
- NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion.
- The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
- While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: One Index Change Likely; US$650mn One-Way with Capping
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect one index change for the HSTECH index in December 2025 based on the latest available data.
NIO HK/ADS Placement – Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn
- NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
- The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (September 10)
- Hong Kong’s Secular Bull Market continues with the index breaking above its long term resistance levels. Market breadth is expanding with 87% of stocks trading above their 200 (DMA).
- Hong Kong market valuations are well below all other Asian markets. This year, the materials and healthcare sectors have been the best performers.
- Robosense Technology (2498 HK) reported solid earnings in its LIDAR business with robotics posting surprising growth. Deutsche Bank and China Renaissance both rate the company a BUY and raise targets.
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison
- Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.
China Mobile (941 HK): Tactical Outlook as HKBN Deal Unfolds
- As you all know China Mobile (941 HK) has strategically ramped up its ownership in HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) aiming at full control/takeover, while navigating regulatory approvals and competitive bids.
- The stock suffered a pretty big drop in the last 2 weeks, especially last week, when it reached 85.1. This week the stock started a small recovery rally.
- Our model finds China Mobile oversold (short-term) but we cannot rule out a further drop to/below 83.2 (Q3 support), the current pattern is bearish: brief rally then down again.
Jilin Jiutai RCB (6122 HK): Minorities Out of Options as the Offer Opens
- On 3 July, Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70. IFA opines it is fair and reasonable.
- The IFA analysis is flawed, and the offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, the offer represents the best-case scenario for minorities, as the timeline for resuming trading remains uncertain.
- While the 24 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge.
Chery Auto IPO PHIP Update & Review
- Chery Auto is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next few weeks. It is expected that Chery Auto could raise about US$1.5 -2.0 billion in this IPO.
- ROE is super high at 70%+. Chery Auto has one of the highest ROEs among all the major auto companies globally.
- Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.
Chery Auto Pre-IPO: More Discounts Than Price War Starter
- Chery positions itself in the economy and mainstream markets or accurately below RMB150,000.
- Chery provided more discounts than BYD, the price war launcher.
- Chery’s stores are far away from the city center in Shanghai.
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