In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Gold International IPO – Growth Premium at a Mid-Tier Price
- Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas
- Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional
- [IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore
- BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?
- Medcaptain Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Zijin Gold International IPO – Growth Premium at a Mid-Tier Price
- IPO leaves upside on the table: Priced at HK$71.6/sh (~US$24.1bn EV), Zijin Gold lists at ~8× 2026E EV/EBITDA — in line with peers despite offering far stronger growth.
- Fastest-Growing gold major challenger: Output set to rise ~20% CAGR to 2027E (2.1Moz), versus flat-to-low growth for Newmont, Barrick, and peers.
- Fair value HK$95/sh (+33%): Base case target on 2026E EBITDA at 8× peer multiple; risks include gold price volatility, execution of Wassa/Sepon/Raygorodok ramps, and governance overhangs.
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas
- STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2025 index rebal event.
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional
- Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
- The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties holding 37.86% (at the time), bought Jinke Property (000656 CH)‘s 18.05% stake at auction on the 30th March, triggering an unconditional MGO (once completed).
- The “Auction Transfer” was subject to CSDC oversight, which has now been satisfied/completed. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 26th September.
[IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore
- Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.
- Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.
- Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Rally or Bear Rally?
- In our previous insight from September 2 we suggested if BYD (1211 HK) reached 102 could have been a good BUY signal.
- It took a bit more than a couple of week for the stock to bottom at 102.80 (this week), then rally 10% to 113.50. Impressive, but….
- … it could be a Bear rally, so in this insight we will try to assess BYD upside potential, and suggest some tactical positioning for the next few weeks.
Medcaptain Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Medcaptain Medical Technology (MMT) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and Huatai International.
- Medcaptain Medical Technology is a global medical solution provider specializing in life support, minimally invasive intervention, and in vitro diagnostics.
- Its products are widely used across hospitals, clinics, testing facilities, and home care scenarios, addressing the needs of critical care, surgery, and diagnostics.
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