In today’s briefing:
- S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
- NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
- Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
- MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
- Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March
- The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion
- The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred
- Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!
- Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield
S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
- There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
- The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
- A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
- With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
- Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
- With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
- We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.
Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
- The security is expected to be added at the global index’s March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry’s fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
- The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
- Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March
- Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March.
- The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
- Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.
The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion
- Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN) is India’s largest solar glass manufacturer having c apacity of 1000TPD in India and 350TPD in Germany.
- With the rising demand and government anti-dumping duty support company is increasing 50% capacity in India to 1500TPD in the upcoming 18 Months.
- Company also raised INR 700Crs of funds via preferential, 100Crs via equity from promoter and 600Crs via warrants from HNIs and family offices for capex and loan repayment.
The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred
- Investors want to see if management can be entrusted with strategies to increase certainty of achieving plans, to build foundations for growth to expand corporate value, and to manage company.
- The problem is that the disclosed contents of the mid-term management plan do not include necessary information, or the goals themselves are not what investors are looking for.
- Before disclosing medium-term management plans, companies should estimate how much return on capital can be achieved by the plan and how much the corporate value and stock price will be.
Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!
- Columbia Sportswear Company’s fourth quarter and full-year financial performance for 2024 presented a mixed picture rooted in market dynamics and strategic initiatives.
- On the earnings call, the company leadership, including CEO Tim Boyle, highlighted achievements in inventory management, cost savings, and international market growth, while acknowledging challenges faced in North American market conditions.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): FY25 Earnings Preview, 5.5x PE, 2x EV-EBITDA and 10% Dividend Yield
- We present our outlook for Taste Gourmet’s (8371 HK) FY25 earnings, which will be announced in mid-June. We estimate revenue growth of 21% and net profit growth of 13%.
- The mainboard listing catalyst is still in play with the company at the query stage with the SFC Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play.
- Based on our earnings preview, the stock trades at 5.5x FY25PE, 2x EV-EBITDA, with 35% of the market cap in cash and a 10% dividend yield.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
