In today’s briefing:
- Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.
- Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact – Execution Solid, China Still Weak
- Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Looking Better Forward
- Tata Motors – JLR Q1FY26 Weakness
- Nike to Cut China Footwear Output to Counter $1 Billion Tariff Hit
- VNCE: 2H Signposts: Tariffs Defer the VNCE Growth Story; Reiterate Buy, $4 PT
- Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- The Gap with Investors’ Perspective Stems from Managers Trying to Distance Themselves from Investors
- CIE Partial Tender Fizzles – No Proration, Bullish Signal
Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.
- Crizac has had a successful IPO, pricing at 28x PE.
- Before any aftermarket premium, the company is already at a significant valuation premium to other global education stocks.
- CRIZ has too many risks to justify a high rating. 95% of revenues come from India-UK student placement, aggregating applications for 10,362 agents.
Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact – Execution Solid, China Still Weak
- Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International – FX and China weakness key drivers.
- Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.
- FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.
Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Looking Better Forward
- Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1Q FY26 update provides evidence for a business recovery as turnover grew 4.7%, against a YoY drop in the last 5 quarters.
- Resurgence in mainland tourist arrivals is a driver. The start of 2Q FY26 also looks good, as this has increased 21.8% YoY in the last 15 days.
- At 1.55x P/B, it is only 7% above the trough since 2020. Also, it traded at a higher multiple in FY20-22 when it was loss-making.
Tata Motors – JLR Q1FY26 Weakness
- Q1FY26 Decline: JLR’s Q1FY26 wholesale volumes dropped 10.7% YoY and 21.7% QoQ, signaling a tougher-than-expected environment amid planned model transitions and tariff shocks.
- US Tariffs & Jaguar Phase-Out Drag Down Sales:Pause in US shipments post-April’25 and wind-down of legacy Jaguar models led to sharp volume contraction in key markets, particularly UK and North-America.
- Luxury Mix Strong, but Growth Uncertain:While 77.2% of Q1FY26 volumes came from high-margin models (Range Rover/Defender),growing reliance on a few nameplates adds concentration risk in a sluggish global macro environment
Nike to Cut China Footwear Output to Counter $1 Billion Tariff Hit
- Nike Inc. is undertaking a major overhaul of its global supply chain to reduce its reliance on Chinese manufacturing for footwear destined for the U.S. market. The move comes as the sportswear giant faces mounting tariff pressures and falling sales.
- Currently, China accounts for about 16% of Nike’s footwear imported into the United States, Matthew Friend, Nike’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call on Thursday. The company wants to cut that figure to a “high single-digit percentage range” by May 2026, shifting production to other countries to offset rising tariff costs.
- Nike estimates tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will add roughly $1 billion to its expenses, highlighting the urgency of diversifying its sourcing strategy.
VNCE: 2H Signposts: Tariffs Defer the VNCE Growth Story; Reiterate Buy, $4 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $4 price target and projections for Vince as we look at key trends for 2HFY25 and beyond.
- We believe, more than any other player in our universe, VNCE has been affected by worries over tariffs; given that the company registered over 60% of their goods from China in FY24, this is not surprising.
- That said, we believe Vince management has done yeoman’s work in quickly diversifying the supply chain and focusing on the key longer term drivers of the business, from continued store expansion and upgrades, increasing wholesale penetration, international growth, deepening the focus on men’s and adding new categories to the store mix to become even more of a lifestyle brand.
Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- In cumulative Q3 FY08/25, revenue was JPY51.4bn (+10.7% YoY), with operating profit at JPY8.4bn (+19.1% YoY).
- The company opened 31 facilities and closed seven, totaling 688 facilities and 18,574 rooms by end-Q3 FY08/25.
- Personnel expenses rose 9.2% YoY, rent increased 11.8% YoY, and SG&A expenses rose to JPY5.1bn (+0.7% YoY).
The Gap with Investors’ Perspective Stems from Managers Trying to Distance Themselves from Investors
- The trend of AGMs being concentrated in the last week of June remains unchanged, and this’s seen as attempt to divert shareholder attention and reluctant attitude toward dialogue with shareholders.
- The rise in share proposals has made some managers wary, and we are not optimistic about pushing AGM later dates and disclosing annual securities reports well in advance of AGM.
- There are gap between what is stated and what actually happens in “the reasons for not introducing anti-takeover measures,” “compliance with constructive dialogue with shareholders,” and disclosure of “TSE’s requests.”
CIE Partial Tender Fizzles – No Proration, Bullish Signal
- CIE’s €24/share partial offer closed with just 9.8% uptake, suggesting investors see more value ahead. No proration required. Treasury shares may support future free float improvements.
- The weak subscription outcome aligns with our DCF-based fair value of €31–33/share. Market consensus also points to €32, underscoring material undervaluation and long-term upside potential.
- Strong fundamentals, 4.0% yield, and attractive peer comps reinforce the case. Investors chose to stay long, confirming confidence in CIE’s strategic direction, liquidity plans, and re-rating potential.
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