In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
- Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep25: US$591mn One-Way Flows; High-Impact for Some Names
- Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake
- PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion
- Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing
- Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)
- Aux Electric IPO: Smallest Player but Superior Growth and Margins
- Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View
- SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025
Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
- The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
- The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.
Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great
- Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
- The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep25: US$591mn One-Way Flows; High-Impact for Some Names
- The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
- In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect no changes for the TDIV index for September 2025 rebal and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$591mn.
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake
- Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, reported a 10.88% ownership ratio in Ashimori Industry (3526 JP). The purchases were from 14 to 18 August, i.e., after the tender offer announcement.
- Takateru Murakami’s average buy-in price of JPY4,134.79 per share is broadly in line with the Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s JPY4,140 tender offer.
- Murakami’s disclosure suggests three possibilities: 1) force Toyoda Gosei to bump, 2) reach an agreement to rollover its shares into the BidCo or 3) a combination of 1 and 2.
PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion
- Transaction services revenue was stagnant due to high comparison base.
- The gross margin declined significantly due to the overseas expansion.
- However, we believe revenue growth and margins will be stable in the long run.
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing
- Laopu maintained high growth in 25H1, mainly benefit from the upward cycle of gold price and the continuous improvement of the brand power. Accordingly, we raised our 2025 performance forecast.
- The key issue here is the sustainability of performance during stable and declining cycle of gold hasn’t been verified. Especially when gold price drops, it will also cause inventory depreciation.
- Laopu cannot “escape” the gold price cycle.The Fed’s rate cuts are usually accompanied by fluctuations in asset prices, and gold may also face sell-off, which may lead to valuation decline.
Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)
- On 25 August, Affirma Capital announced that it will be doubling the tender offer volume of JTC from 10.43 million shares previously to 20.87 million shares (40.4% of outstanding shares).
- Affirma Capital’s stake in JTC will increase from the existing 29.2% to 69.5% after this second tender offer.
- There were a total of 21.5 million international visitors to Japan from January to June 2025, up 21% YoY. This is a record breaking figure.
Aux Electric IPO: Smallest Player but Superior Growth and Margins
- Aux Electric (2580 HK) is looking to raise up to US$460m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers, with capabilities covering the design, R&D, production, sales and related services of household and central air conditioners.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View
- Alibaba (9988 HK/ BABA US)will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.
- Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.
- Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.
SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025
- It was reported today that SoftBank sold 2.3 trillion won ($1.7 billion) worth of Coupang (CPNG US) shares this year.
- The total number of Coupang shares sold in three rounds this year by SoftBank is 60 million, worth $1.66 billion (2.3 trillion won).
- We believe that this partial stake sale of SoftBank by Coupang is likely to have a moderately negative impact on Coupang.
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