In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms
- Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
- Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying
- Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
- NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip
- Beenos Inc (3328 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Newness, Pricing Drives Returns; Reiterate Buy, PT
- United Arrows (7606 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms
- Geely Auto (175 HK)‘s discount to NAV is less than half its 12-month average. And Geely is generally trading tighter to listed PRC auto peers.
- Preceding my comments on Geely – and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
- Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
- GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.
Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying
- On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger.
- Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares).
- Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.
Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
- In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY
- Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY
- Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire
NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip
- In our previousNIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
- The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
- This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.
Beenos Inc (3328 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- Q2 FY09/24 results show a 2.1% YoY GMV decrease to JPY57.6bn and a 40.5% YoY revenue decline.
- In Q2 FY09/25, GMV increased due to marketing initiatives and new features, with total membership surpassing 6mn.
- BEENOS’s Q2 FY09/25 progress towards full-year targets was 50.1% for GMV and 52.0% for revenue.
Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- The company reported revenue of JPY3.0bn, operating profit of JPY204mn, and net profit of JPY98mn, all showing YoY growth.
- Revenue growth was driven by increased photo shoots and unit prices, despite higher personnel and transaction costs.
- The fitness gym business saw a 29.0% YoY revenue decline due to the closure of the Ashiya store.
BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Newness, Pricing Drives Returns; Reiterate Buy, PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the May catalog.
- While May did not register any material new campaigns, and historically is a key transition month, the catalog continued the key tenets of the 2025 focus: 1) more product: SKUs rose YoY 4.6%, the fourth consecutive month of YoY SKU increases; 2) more newness: new product offerings increases YoY, with kitchen the key driver; 3) higher pricing: the average pricing for May was the highest the last four years and up 9.3% YoY and 4) more bargains: May also had a higher level of product discounts YoY, as the Mexican consumer remains focused on bargains; that said, May price cuts were the lowest level in 2025.
- We believe the May catalog reflected a somewhat resolute Betterware management, focused on driving returns in a tough Mexican economy.
United Arrows (7606 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- FY03/25 revenue grew 12.4% YoY, driven by proactive inventory strategies and expanded product lineup, with GPM at 52.1%.
- FY03/26 forecasts include 9.8% YoY revenue growth, 12.2% YoY gross profit increase, and 12.7% YoY operating profit growth.
- FY03/25 net income fell 12.2% YoY due to impairment losses, store relocations, and higher corporate tax rate.
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