In today’s briefing:
- Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
- Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
- Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
- [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
- Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
- Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
- Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0
- Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
- Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
- There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
- There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
- The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.
Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
- Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
- Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
- Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.
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Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
- 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
- Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
- In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.
[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
- Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns.
- As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
- Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;
Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
- Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
- It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
- The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
- Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
- A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.
Herbalife Ltd: Pro2col Beta Reveal Provides Deeper Insights into Herbalife 3.0
- We attended the Herbalife North America Extravaganza held in late July in Arlington, Texas, which is a large, in-person annual distributor event.
- The highlight of the event was the reveal of the beta version of company’s new Pro2col™ health and wellness digital platform, providing greater insight into HLF’s next evolution into its vision of becoming the world’s premier health and wellness company, community, and platform.
- The launch of Pro2col should be as impactful to Herbalife 3.0 as the launch of the Formula 1 Healthy Meal product line under the weight management category was to Herbalife 1.0 and the expansion into the adjacent active and lifestyle nutrition categories, particularly sports nutrition with the Herbalife24® product line, was to Herbalife 2.0.
Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
- The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
- Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
- The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.
Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
- Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
- In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
- BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.
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