In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
- In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?
- Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
- Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
- HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang
- Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
- A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week.
- For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
- The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.
In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?
- Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
- Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
- The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com
Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
- Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
- Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
- Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
- Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
- Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel
In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.
Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
- Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
- Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
- Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang
- Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
- Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.
- Stella International (1836 HK) has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK) at 58%.
Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
- Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
