In today’s briefing:
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
- NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal
- Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2025)
- Nykaa Block – US$140m Selldown by Banga Family
- Crizac Limited IPO Analysis
- IFBH (6603 HK) – Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?
- Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth
- Chinese Tire Giants Accelerate Global Expansion Amid Trade Barriers
- Culp, Inc: 4Q25 Adj EPS ($0.07); FY26 to Benefit from Restructuring & Price Cost
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added
- We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
- A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
- There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.
NH Foods Placement: Clean up by Norinchukin Bank; Unrelated Buyback May Buffer Deal
- A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$333m from selling their respective stakes in Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP) .
- While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2025)
- In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in May and June 2025.
- There were 24 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
- There were four companies with more than 100 billion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in May and June with at least 3% of outstanding shares.
Nykaa Block – US$140m Selldown by Banga Family
- Harindarpal Singh Banga, one of Nykaa’s early investors, aims to raise around US$140m via selling a 2% stake in FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN).
- He has been gradually reducing his holding, currently owns about 4.97% of Nykaa. Prior to Nykaa’s IPO in Nov 2021, he held a stake of 8.7% in the company.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
Crizac Limited IPO Analysis
- Crizac’s INR 860-crore, 100% OFS IPO opens at INR 233-245, giving investors exposure to its fast-growing B2B overseas-education marketplace.
- International student demand is booming, yet 95 % of revenue hinges on UK-Canada-Ireland; any visa tightening or pricing shock could squeeze growth.
- Valuation looks fair and model asset-light, but high concentration and no fresh funds temper enthusiasm.
IFBH (6603 HK) – Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?
- IFBH’s IPO debut is outstanding. Capital/investors are actually voting for “light-asset + high-efficiency” business model, as they see the possibility of achieving great results with small investment in if coconut water.
- When coconut water consumption boom subsides, real competition lies in whether IFBH can turn the opportunity of “riding the wave” into high moat amid supply chain crisis/price wars/single product line.
- The ultimate outcome of this capital frenzy remains an unknown. We updated our forecast. IFBH is overvalued. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring/MIXUE who has supply chain barriers.
Taste Gourmet FY25: Strong Results, FY26 To See Decent Growth
- Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenues/adj profits up 19%/14% YoY for FY25, led by strong customer growth on account of new store openings.
- Net cash on the balance sheet was 190 million HKD, or 27% of the market capitalization. The company declared a final dividend of 8 cents (FY: 14 cents, ~7.2% yield).
- Despite the strong move following the results, the stock trades at 6.2x FY26e, assuming earnings on an adjusted basis grow by 14% YoY, mirroring their store growth.
Chinese Tire Giants Accelerate Global Expansion Amid Trade Barriers
- Linglong Tire’s new plants in Brazil, Kenya and Anhui in China
- Yongsheng Rubber to take advantage of Morocco’s FTA with West
- CNTR’s car tire facility to come up at Alexandria in Egypt
Culp, Inc: 4Q25 Adj EPS ($0.07); FY26 to Benefit from Restructuring & Price Cost
- CULP posted 4QFY25 adjusted EPS of ($0.07), beating our estimate by $0.03, on strong gross margin gains in mattress fabrics on the back of management’s restructuring gains despite softer-than-expected revenue.
- Upholstery fabrics revenue was down 8.9%, even as management noted strength (and potentially market share gains) in the contract/hospitality side of the upholstery business.
- On the residential side of upholstery, it was continued weak industry-wide demand (slow housing, mortgage rates, consumers pulling back from discretionary durable spend) and the continued hangover from one large customer’s order timing that pulled sales forward in early FY25.
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