In today’s briefing:
- [Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End
- Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback
- Shein IPO: Hong Kong Yes, London No
- CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)
- Initial Thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO (Creator of the Baby Shark Brand)
- [Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit
- Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth & Manufacturing Stability
- BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT
- LE: 1Q Preview: Being Creative in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
- Light & Wonder’s Secret Weapon: Premium Games & A $1.4B Profit Target in Sight; But Is It Achievable?
[Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End
- In line with the trend of financial institutions led by non-life insurers selling out of their cross-holdings, today we get an offering of shares held in Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
- Today we got an announcement of 29.28mm shares being offered by a dozen financial institutions and a greenshoe for 15% more. At a 10% discount from here it’s ¥57bn/US$400mm.
- It is 16 days of ADV, which is big, but the company also announced a ¥50bn buyback from Pricing+6 to end of March 2026. That should stabilise things.
Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback
- A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
- Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Shein IPO: Hong Kong Yes, London No
- Shein announced it is planning for an IPO in Hong Kong in 2025. Shein tried to go public in London, but its attempt has essentially failed.
- Due to tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China and Hong Kong by the U.S. government, the valuation of Shein could decline to less than $50 billion.
- Now, as long as the valuation is not excessive but reasonable, there could be a decent demand for this IPO of Shein in Hong Kong.
CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)
- Mazda leaped upward with other Auto companies following a Court of International Trade ruling that nullified Trump’s reciprocal tariffs but left auto tariffs at 25%.
- The CIT has historically given presidents much more leeway on rules that the auto tariffs fall under, so challenges to these tariffs are less likely to succeed.
- The tariff threat to Mazda is existential, and in our view, consensus forecasts have not even begun to appreciate this.
Initial Thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO (Creator of the Baby Shark Brand)
- In this insight, we provide our initial thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO which is expected to be completed in KOSPI in 2H 2025.
- The Pinkfong Company is the creator of the Baby Shark brand. Its original “Baby Shark Dance” is the most viewed Youtube video ever (15.9 billion views as of May 2025).
- The Pinkfong Company’s valuation was more than 1 trillion won in 2021 (Series B investment round).
[Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit
- MNSO reported 1Q25 rev. in line with cons. but non-GAAP op. profit 17% below and GAAP net income 33% below cons,
- We view MNSO’s store expansion as being below its bar of quality. Downside risks were not fully priced in. Our 2025 revenue/net profit forecasts are 7.0%/8.2% below consensus;
- We cut the TP from US$16 to US$13.5/ADS and keep the SELL rating.
Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth & Manufacturing Stability
- Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
- The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
- This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.
BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating and $58 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop and slightly lowering our EPS projections to account for the current tariff-driven environment, as the company announced material 1Q top and bottom line upside, driven by strong offerings, seasonal shifts and further gains in the higher margin franchising and third party segments.
- Further, management continues to return capital to shareholders via share repurchases and quarterly dividends, while still maintaining a cash rich ($3.37 per share), debt free balance sheet.
- That said, given the current uncertain economic environment, management, despite the 1Q upside, remained conservative in their guidance, reiterating FY25 revenue growth of mid single digits and reducing the pre-tax projection to $61 to $67 million.
LE: 1Q Preview: Being Creative in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Lands’ End with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results before the open on Thursday.
- We believe in the key tenets of the Lands’ Ends story, from: 1) lowering discounting (and inventory); 2) shifting the product and customer mix to a younger, more fashion driven buyer who will purchase multi-item offerings; 3) expanding and shifting the product mix with higher-margin licensed categories; 4) continuing to expand the online marketplace offerings; 5) leveraging the company’s strong brand and ability to quickly respond to capture more business services contracts and 6) growing the international business via owned and licensed offerings.
- That said, even before tariffs, the optics of 2025, with increased levels of licensed goods, would make this year a period of transition.
Light & Wonder’s Secret Weapon: Premium Games & A $1.4B Profit Target in Sight; But Is It Achievable?
- Light & Wonder (LNW) has demonstrated resilient growth in its first quarter of 2025, reflective of a comprehensive strategy focused on product innovation, operational excellence, and a diversified gaming portfolio.
- The company reported a 2% increase in consolidated revenue year-over-year, reaching $774 million, driven primarily by its gaming and iGaming segments.
- The gaming division, which accounted for $495 million of the revenue, experienced growth across various business lines, notably in gaming operations, tables, and systems.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
