In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: US$6bn+ One-Way Flows; One Intra-Review Addition Soon
- Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
- SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
- China Resources Beer Signals a Bottom in Consumption?
- Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution
- NIKE Q3 Earnings: Options Market Expectations and Post-Earnings Trends
- Yokohama Shuts Three Plants In Quick Succession, Relaunches Another In China
- NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What’s Next?
- Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
- Tesla’s $800 Billion Wipeout: The Troubling Signs Investors Can’t Ignore!
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: US$6bn+ One-Way Flows; One Intra-Review Addition Soon
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
- Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.
Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
- Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
- Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
- Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
- With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
- We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.
China Resources Beer Signals a Bottom in Consumption?
- Historical results as expected with a sales and profit decline
- The first 2 months of the year show a positive trend
- Market reaction to the results should highlight low investor expectations
Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution
- Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and Amer Sports (AS US). Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24.
- Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.
- The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.
NIKE Q3 Earnings: Options Market Expectations and Post-Earnings Trends
- A detailed analysis of the earnings implied jump in Nike options compared to historical outcomes.
- Post-Earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies and magnitude based on beats and misses.
- The third quarter stands out for the size of earnings-day moves, while earnings misses have shown a distinct post-earnings performance trend.
Yokohama Shuts Three Plants In Quick Succession, Relaunches Another In China
- Trelleborg plant in the US to shut down in April, 2025
- Israel, Prague plants too stop working in 2025
- Hangzhou to have car tire plant producing 9 million tires a year
NIFTY Tactical Outlook: Profit Target Is About To Be Reached, What’s Next?
- The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has reached 22939 on Wednesday, our model indicates that if the index reaches the 23320 target, there would be a 75% probability of pullback.
- From the perspective of our time model, the index could continue to rise for at least 1 more week.
- We conclude that it’s possible that the index keeps rallying 1 more week towards 23320, then a pullback could start – for now the index seems stuck in its downtrend.
Meituan (3690 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
- Meituan (3690 HK) is announcing 2024 Full Year Results on March 21, 2025, with historical data showing substantial price movement following earnings.
- The options market is pricing a 5-6% post-announcement move (below historical average), with the March 28 ATM straddle priced at 15.4-15.6, implying a 9.0% break-even by expiration.
- Three distinct option strategies are evaluated, considering an expected post-announcement drop in implied volatility.
Tesla’s $800 Billion Wipeout: The Troubling Signs Investors Can’t Ignore!
- Tesla’s stock has been in free fall, shedding nearly 50% of its value since mid-December, wiping out over $800 billion in market cap.
- The most recent 15% plunge on Monday marked Tesla’s worst trading day since September 2020, and the stock is now on track for its seventh straight week of losses—its longest losing streak since going public in 2010.
- This sharp decline is not a typical market correction but the result of a combination of fundamental weaknesses, political controversies, and competitive pressures that are raising serious questions about Tesla’s future trajectory.
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