Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart, Harim Holdings, Alibaba, Three Squirrels, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Flowers Foods, Toll Brothers, Intralot S.A.-Integrated Lot, Jm Smucker Co, Five Below and more

• Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to both the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) — effective Monday, September 8, 2025.
• Beyond the tail winds from this technical upgrade, stock’s further upside rests on investor conviction on its potential to continue to deliver strong growth beyond the short term.
• Pop Mart’s near term growth rests on proving IP durability and executing global scale-up.

• Harim Holdings (003380 KS) announced that it plans to sell its 14.744 million treasury shares through an issuance of EB worth 143 billion won. 
• The EB exchange price is 9,713 won (15.6% higher than its current price). The company plans to use the EB proceeds to pay down debt and for working capital. 
• We are NEGATIVE on Harim Holdings’ EB issue using its treasury shares as the main asset to be exchanged.

• Context:Alibaba (9988 HK) reported Q1 results on 29 Aug. Despite a revenue miss, strong cloud growth and its AI chip announcement drove the stock up double digits.
• Highlight: Implied volatility deflated sharply post-earnings, with the September contract down 8.5% and back months also lower, while skew shifted down in parallel.
• Why it matters: Put the current volatility surface into context. This insight can serve as a case study of how earnings-driven repricing can inform positioning ahead of future events.

• Three Squirrels (TRS HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming H-share listing.
• It began selling nuts through e-commerce channels. Over the years, it had evolved significantly, growing from a single category nut brand into the largest domestic snack company in China.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Lowe’s Companies, a prominent player in the home improvement retail sector, recently announced its Q2 2025 earnings results along with its strategic acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM).
• This acquisition plays a pivotal role in advancing Lowe’s Total Home strategy by expanding its Pro service offerings and diversifying its revenue streams.
• FBM, a leading distributor of interior building products, complements Lowe’s existing operations by enhancing its capabilities in serving larger Pro customers, a market estimated at $250 billion.

• Flowers Foods, in its second quarter 2025 call, outlined both ongoing challenges and strategic efforts to realign with shifting market dynamics.
• The company is navigating a transformative phase, adapting to challenging economic environments and changing consumer preferences, which have impacted its traditionally strong market performance.
• This transition is not immediate; however, leadership is optimistic about its long-term portfolio repositioning strategy that emphasizes innovation and consumer alignment.

• Toll Brothers, a prominent player in the luxury home building market, shared optimistic third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025.
• The company delivered 2,959 homes, which contributed to record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2.9 billion, with an average home price of $974,000.
• This robust performance underscores the firm’s strategic focus on maintaining high margins rather than increasing sales pace.

Intralot reported ‘steady’ 1–2% growth in revenue and EBITDA in H125, with underlying growth dampened by foreign currency translation, and trends quite variable between the quarters. From a contract perspective, Intralot has had a good year so far, with renewals/extensions in Idaho, Montana, New Hampshire and New Zealand, and a new win in Nebraska. The coming months will be transformational for Intralot with the Q425 completion of the acquisition of Bally’s International Interactive (BII). The acquisition will significantly change Intralot’s business exposure (with the addition of online casino, so that sports betting and iGaming will represent more than 70% of combined revenue), geographic exposure (the majority of the acquired revenue is in the UK, which will become the largest revenue source at c 60% of the combined group) and scale, given BII’s enterprise value of €2.7bn versus Intralot’s current c €1.1bn.

• The J.M. Smucker Company’s first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026 highlighted both challenges and opportunities in its performance.
• A significant point of discussion was the impact of pricing strategies and tariff headwinds on its Coffee segment.
• Initially, the company expected pricing actions to boost this segment’s sales by about 20% annually.

• Five Below, Inc. recently reported its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a strong performance that exceeded expectations and marked pivotal achievements.
• During the quarter, the company reached over $1 billion in sales, a milestone outside of the typically high-Q4, underscoring its robust business model and consumer appeal.
• The results were propelled by strategic decisions, including curated newness in product assortments, simplified pricing structures, improved product availability, and innovative marketing efforts leveraging creator content.