In today’s briefing:
- Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
- ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
- Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
- HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
- Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025
- LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced
- Continental Spin-off (Aumovio) Deep Dive
- Weekly Update (Aumovio, WBD, LION)
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
- On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
- The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.
- The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading.
- SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
- In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap.
- On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
- The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.
ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
- On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
- The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
- In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
- In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.
HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025
- In Q3 FY2025/9, LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 21,059 mn, up 7.1% YoY and operating profit of JPY 3,001 mn, up 23.3% YoY .
- Operating profit rose substantially, backed by strong performance in the HOME’S Services segment.
- Excluding the one-time gain on sale recorded in the same period a year earlier, operating profit doubled on an actual basis, underscoring a notable improvement in profitability.
LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced
- LFVN reported 4QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.17 versus $0.14, up 21.4% and in line with our forecast. FactSet consensus was $0.18. All % changes are Y/Y.
- Sales in the quarter increased 12.6% to $55.1MM, below our forecast for $59.0MM and FactSet consensus of $56.9MM.
- Management’s implied 4QFY25 sales range was $54.6-61.6MM so it was at the lower end of management’s previous expectations as well.
Continental Spin-off (Aumovio) Deep Dive
- Continental (XTRA: CON) is set to spin off its automotive business, Aumovio, on September 18, 2025.
- The business, which has historically operated with low margins and modest growth, is currently undergoing a turnaround.
- I estimate Aumovio’s fair value at approximately €56 per share and believe the stock could present an attractive opportunity if it trades down meaningfully following the spin-off.
Weekly Update (Aumovio, WBD, LION)
- Next week, Continental (CON) will spin off its auto parts business, Aumovio, as a public company.
- The first day of regular trading will be September 18, 2025. Shareholders will receive one share of Aumovio for every two shares of Continental.
Aumovio is in the midst of a turnaround, and I was initially skeptical of managements rosy guidance.
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