In today’s briefing:
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
- Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer
- Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
- Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
- IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
- Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
- Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
- Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
- Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion.
- Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment.
- There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline.
Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer
- Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
- The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.
- Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.
Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
- If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
- This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done.
Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
- Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
- The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.
IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
- India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
- We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
- Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.
Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
- Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
- The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
- We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price.
- Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional.
- The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price.
Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025.
- This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country.
- The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not.
Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
- Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
- Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.
Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.
Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.
It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.
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