Daily Brief Credit: China Jinmao – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

China Jinmao’s H1/23 results were in line with projections, with the company reporting robust contracted sales and cash collections despite the industry downturn. The gross margin narrowed to 14% (H1/22: 22%), albeit this was in line with industry trends. We expect the gross margin to remain weak, as Jinmao has to clear existing inventory (with higher land costs) in the subdued market.

We expect Jinmao’s debt to remain largely stable going forward, as the company will likely control land spending to shore up its balance sheet. Positively, the land bank has remained sufficiently large and should provide for 4-5 years of development. We expect Jinmao to continue reducing its offshore borrowings, and to redeem the perpetual securities.

Overall, Jinmao’s credit profile is underpinned by its SOE status, which supports the company’s access to financing. Moreover, the CHJMAO bonds are supported by the presence of cross-acceleration clauses with parent Sinochem Holdings’ offshore notes in the event of default. We move our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the CHJMAO notes, with a preference for the 2024 and 2025 notes (both yielding close to 15%).

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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