In today’s briefing:
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nissan Motor
- UST yields jumped 4-6 bps across the curve yesterday, as the benign core CPI data pared market expectations for Fed easing. Feddated OIS are now pricing in 43 bps of rate cuts this year (vs. 49 bps as of Monday), with the first cut expected in October. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.94%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 5 bps to 4.48%.
- Equities were mixed. The S&P 500 declined 0.4% to 6,244, although the Nasdaq rose 0.2% to 20,678. In the US, the June CPI inched up to 2.7% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.4% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.1% p).
U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage
- Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
- Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US.
- CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.
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