In today’s briefing:
- CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
- EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO
- Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
- Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
- Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
- Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO
- American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida
CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
- According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
- We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025.
- Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued.
EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO
- The company set terms with a F-1/A putting 10 million shares for sale at a range of $46-$50 which would value the company as high as $4.05b.
- BlackRock and funds managed by BlackRock placed a 20-percent cornerstone investment order and is on the cover of the prospectus.
- The blueprint to getting an IPO out the door during this time is to shrink the size of the transaction, bring in a cornerstone investor and provide an attractive valuation.
Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
- Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
- Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
- Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.
Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut. Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
- Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
- Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?
Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
- Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO
- According to guidance that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with high-quality 1-on-1 conversions.
- Aspen is selling itself at or slightly below the $30.73 per share book value of comps.
- Apollo Global has done a fair job of cleaning up Aspen and making it increasingly more profitable while reducing exposure to reinsurance and property in vulnerable areas.
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida
- According to our sources, the deal is oversubscribed with a good amount of accounts still to hear from.
- Management has strong numbers as of year-end 2024 and have gained even more momentum in Q1 2025.
- While smaller in size, this company has a sustainable expansion plan and a profitable balance sheet with a tailwind from a growing Florida market.
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