In today’s briefing:
- Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
- Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
- SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
- SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
- Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
- Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals
Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
- While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
- Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
- Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.
Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
- The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
- According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
- Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.
SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
- Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.
SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
- SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
- The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
- I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.
Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
- The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
- According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
- The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.
Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals
- Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
- In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.
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