In today’s briefing:
- JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway
- Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis
- MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
- JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof
- Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation
JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway
- JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
- Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
- The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.
Mixue Group IPO Valuation Analysis
- Mixue Group plans to complete its IPO, selling 17.1 million shares at the IPO price of HK$202.50 per share. The IPO is expected to start trading on 3 March.
- Our base case valuation of Mixue Group is implied market cap of HKD 96 billion or target price of HKD 254, which is 26% higher than the initial IPO price.
- Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a range of HKD 206 to HKD 308 per share for Mixue Group.
MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
- We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case.
- There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison or Lack Thereof
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
- JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
- We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation
- Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk.
- Due to slower R&D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
- After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen’s IPO prospects.
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