In today’s briefing:
- Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis
- PonyAI and WeRide Secondary HK Trading – Weakish Demand, WeRide Did Better but Trading Lower
- Lendlease REIT Placement: DPU Accretive, past Offering Did Well
- Groww IPO Review – India’s Largest & Fastest Growing Broker / Investment Platform.
- The Pinkfong Company IPO Book Building Analysis
- Physicswallah Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Had a Dream Run
- Ningbo Joyson IPO Trading: Tight Premium and Mediocre Insti Demand
- Milian Technology IPO Valuation Analysis: A Dating App Company May Seek Unicorn Valuation In HK IPO
- Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO): IPO Opens Flat for the HCI Spin-Off Insurtech
- CNGR A/H Listing: PHIP Update and Thoughts on A/H Premium
Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis
- Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its planned secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- Our base case valuation of Pony.Ai is HK$178.2 per share over the next 6-12 months, which represents 28% higher than the Hong Kong public offering price.
- Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View of Pony.ai. Despite our Positive view, there have been increasing concerns about the overstretched valuations of major AI/tech related companies globally.
PonyAI and WeRide Secondary HK Trading – Weakish Demand, WeRide Did Better but Trading Lower
- Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$860m and WeRide (WRD US) raised around US$310m in their HK Secondary offering.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
- In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics for the two deals.
Lendlease REIT Placement: DPU Accretive, past Offering Did Well
- Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT SP) is looking to raise at least S$270m in a private placement, to fund acquisition of 70% interest in PLQ Mall.
- Overall, this deal represents 44.2 days of ADV and 16.5% of shares outstanding.
- In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Groww IPO Review – India’s Largest & Fastest Growing Broker / Investment Platform.
- Groww is India’s largest stockbroker with 13mn active users. It is progressing towards a full-stack investment platform, expecting to cross-sell multiple financial products to over 18mn users on its platform.
- It is aggressively expanding into lending (MTF, LAS) and has recently acquired ‘Fisdom’ to offer premiumised wealth solutions (AIF, insurance, tax-filing). It also owns Groww AMC, offering debt/equity/Fixed income products.
- At 33 times FY25 earnings, IPO is priced reasonably considering its deep penetration in the market (customers from 98% Pincodes) and strong ARPU and profitability supported by decent retention metrics.
The Pinkfong Company IPO Book Building Analysis
- The Pinkfong Company successfully completed its IPO book building process. It finalized the IPO price at 38,000 won (high end of the IPO price range).
- A total of 2,300 domestic and international institutions participated in the book building process. The IPO competition ratio was 615.9 to 1.
- Our base case valuation of the Pinkfong Co is implied market cap of 671.4 billion won or target price of 46,369 won per share (over the next 6-12 months).
Physicswallah Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Had a Dream Run
- Physicswallah is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
Ningbo Joyson IPO Trading: Tight Premium and Mediocre Insti Demand
- Ningbo Joyson Electronic (600699 CH) is looking to raise up to US$471m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- NBJ, is an intelligent automotive technology solution provider, offering advanced products and solutions across the auto part industry’s key areas including automotive electronics and automotive safety.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
Milian Technology IPO Valuation Analysis: A Dating App Company May Seek Unicorn Valuation In HK IPO
- Milian Technology files for Hong Kong IPO and seeks fresh capital for further expanding its global presence and accelerating overseas market penetration.
- Xiaomi backed online social networking platform company is one of the fastest growing marriage and dating platforms in China, reaching RMB2,373m revenue in 2024, up ~129% YoY.
- I expect Milian Technology may seek unicorn valuation in upcoming HK IPO as growth is exceptionally high and profitability improved.
Exzeo Group Inc. (XZO): IPO Opens Flat for the HCI Spin-Off Insurtech
- Exzeo priced mid-range at $21.00 and traded flat, signaling a disciplined and stable market entrance.
- Profitable, zero-debt insurtech spin-off from HCI boasting 50%+ EBITDA margins and $195M ARR.
- Expanding beyond 13 states into major markets; poised for sustainable, high-margin growth under proven leadership.
CNGR A/H Listing: PHIP Update and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise up to US$700m in its H-share listing.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
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