In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up
- BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside
- Varmora Granito Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Cameco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage- McArthur River & Cigar Lake Developments AS a Crucial Factor Influencing The Company’s Outlook!
- Beat Ideas: Jayaswal Neco; Potential Turnaround Bet on Deleveraging and Restructuring
- Hakudo Co Ltd (7637 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- International Paper Wins Big in North America – Can It Close the Industry Gap by 2026?
- Cenovus Energy: Initiation of Coverage -A Closer Look At Its Refinery Network Optimization & Maintenance Cycles!
- Toyo Kanetsu K K (6369 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Green Plains, Inc: 2Q25 EBITDA Beat; Big Increase to Carbon Strategy Guidance
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
- We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.
BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside
- Timing: BHP (BHP AU) reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.
- Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.
- Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.
Varmora Granito Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Varmora Granito Limited (6590052Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Goldman Sachs, JM Financial and SBI Capital.
- Varmora Granito Limited (VGL) is a leading Indian manufacturer and trader of varied types of tiles. As of FY25, its portfolio comprised over 3,500 SKUs.
- VGL generates 78.69% of its revenue from India, selling its products through both B2C and B2B channels. Its domestic revenue is primarily driven by its B2C channel.
Cameco Corporation: Initiation of Coverage- McArthur River & Cigar Lake Developments AS a Crucial Factor Influencing The Company’s Outlook!
- Cameco Corporation’s recent earnings provided a detailed overview of the company’s strong performance in the nuclear energy sector, bolstered by a favorable market environment.
- The corporation maintained its disciplined approach to operations and financial management, demonstrating resilience amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape and growing interest in nuclear energy as a clean energy solution.
- The positives from the earnings call highlighted Cameco’s strategic positioning and robust financial health.
Beat Ideas: Jayaswal Neco; Potential Turnaround Bet on Deleveraging and Restructuring
- Jayaswal Neco has transitioned from financial distress to operational momentum, with blast furnace upgrades completed, capacity ramp-up underway, and debt refinancing on the horizon.
- Removal of ARC stake sale overhang and scope for capacity expansion strengthen the investment case.
- If debt gets refinanced at 50% lower interest rate by Dec-25, it could double company’s PAT leading to potential re-rating
Hakudo Co Ltd (7637 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue increased by 8.3% YoY to JPY17.1bn, while operating profit decreased by 55.6% YoY to JPY385mn.
- The semiconductor production equipment industry faced weak demand, impacting sales; aerospace industry demand remained strong.
- The company revised its FY03/26 earnings forecast downward, expecting revenue of JPY67.2bn and operating profit of JPY2.5bn.
International Paper Wins Big in North America – Can It Close the Industry Gap by 2026?
- International Paper’s second quarter 2025 earnings call revealed a transitional period for the company as it continues its strategic journey towards achieving $6 billion in EBITDA by 2027.
- The company is focusing on three core areas: closing the market share gap in North America despite softer markets in the U.S. and EMEA, addressing cost performance issues in its North American mills and EMEA operations, and maintaining its 2025 EBITDA guidance through commercial and cost improvements.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Cenovus Energy: Initiation of Coverage -A Closer Look At Its Refinery Network Optimization & Maintenance Cycles!
- Cenovus Energy, a prominent Canadian oil company, faced several operational challenges and milestones in its second quarter of 2025.
- The company demonstrated resilience and effective crisis management, showcased by their handling of the Caribou Lake wildfire’s impact on operations.
- Despite the wildfire requiring the evacuation of over 2,000 workers and an orderly shutdown of their Christina Lake facility, Cenovus displayed robust operational recovery.
Toyo Kanetsu K K (6369 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue decreased by 9.4% YoY, with operating profit down 18.6% YoY, and recurring profit down 18.0% YoY.
- Orders and order backlogs increased by 29.5% YoY, with a slight decline of 1.2% from end-FY03/25.
- Revenue increased by 8.8% YoY, with operating profit up 135.9% YoY due to profitable project inspections.
Green Plains, Inc: 2Q25 EBITDA Beat; Big Increase to Carbon Strategy Guidance
- Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.
- This year, GPRE announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.
- GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).
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