In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much
- Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable
- Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings
- Management Interview english – Desert Gold Ventures Inc. – 24.06.2025
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
- The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
- The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.
Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
- Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
- Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
- Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.
Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much
- Dyes and pigments player Kiri Industries is set to realise $580mn post-taxes for its 37% stake in Singapore based DyStar Global; ~50% above its current marketcap of $370mn.
- Adjusting for Debt repayment, we estimate that once proceeds have been recieived and pending warrants have been converted, cash in books will stand at INR ~600/share vs CMP: 570
- The company’s core dyes business, its 40% stake in Lonsen Kiri Chemicals India and its copper investments could be worth 300+share taking SOTP to ~900
Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ / 9696.HK): Rebuilding Via Expansion, Valuations Appear Reasonable
- After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
- Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
- While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.
Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
- In our note Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies, we noted a mid-point guidance of 575,000 tons for Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN).
- The company revised this midpoint guidance down substantially to 400,000 tons following the discovery of Seismic activity in the Kakula mines (a 0.7% downward revision of global refined production).
- The Kamoa-Kakula mine is the 4th largest mine in the world, and the mid-point guidance post 2027 was to ramp it beyond 700,000 tons.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
- Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.
- Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
- Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
- Asia’s base oils price-premium to competing/feedstock prices extends fall to five-month low.
- Lower margins coincide with improving supply in Asia as more plant-maintenance draws to a close.
- Improving supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb refiners’ leverage to target higher prices to reverse recent drop in margins.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings
- WTI futures picked up by 1.2% for the week ending 20/Jun, marking its third straight weekly gain. The uptrend was due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
- The U.S. rig count fell by one to 554. The oil rig count fell by one to 438, while gas rigs dropped by two to 111.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 0.87 on 20/Jun compared to 0.89 on 13/Jun. Call OI fell by 8.9% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.4%.
Management Interview english – Desert Gold Ventures Inc. – 24.06.2025
- As Desert Gold Ventures Inc. enters a new phase of growth, the company’s expansion into Côte d’Ivoire through the acquisition of the Tiegba Project reflects a deliberate and strategic extension of its presence in West Africa.
- Known for its flagship SMSZ Project in Mali, located along the highly prospective Senegal Mali Shear Zone, Desert Gold continues to advance its exploration efforts with a focus on resource growth and near-term production.
- In this interview, CEO Jared Scharf outlines how the Tiegba acquisition supports the company’s long-term vision, details the cost-effective path to drill readiness, and discusses how the company is positioning itself amid sustained strength in gold prices.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June
- US base oils demand could get support from higher crude oil prices that curb prospect of fall in base oils prices.
- Even so, expectations of ready availability of supplies, combined with seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in coming weeks, likely to incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
- Buyers face ongoing challenge of balancing expectations of weak fundamentals with repercussions of higher crude oil prices and risk of weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
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