In today’s briefing:
- Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Fueling an Aussie Mean-Reversion Trade
- Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage
- JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity
- Linde plc: Initiation of Coverage- Positioned to Dominate High-Growth Markets with Disruptive Tech Edge!
- How Kinder Morgan Is Balancing Debt & Growth with Game-Changing Projects Set to Power the Future!
- Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Adriatic Metals, Carta, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Tourism Holdings
- Kinetik Holdings: Its New Partnerships In Infrastructure & Power Generation Projects Can Be A Potential Game Changer!
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Fueling an Aussie Mean-Reversion Trade
- Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU).
- Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Perseus Mining Vs. Capricorn Metals: Striking Gold with Statistical Arbitrage
- Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), two Australian gold miners.
- Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity
- JFE Holdings rebounded from COVID-era losses to deliver peak earnings in FY22, followed by a gradual normalization through FY25, with stable steel volumes but declining margins amid weak domestic demand.
- The group is investing ¥970B (~$6.5B) through FY2030 across decarbonization, product upgrades (e.g., electrical steel, galvanizing), and overseas downstream expansion to sustain competitiveness.
- Adjusting for its ₹910B (~¥1.7T) JSW stake, ~30% of EV, JFE trades at just 2.7x EV/EBITDA—deeply discounted vs peers like Nippon Steel and POSCO.
Linde plc: Initiation of Coverage- Positioned to Dominate High-Growth Markets with Disruptive Tech Edge!
- Linde, a leading global industrial gases and engineering company, recently reported its first quarter financial results for 2025.
- Despite navigating economic headwinds, the company demonstrated resilience, reflecting the robustness of its operating model.
- Linde employees managed to deliver an 8% growth in Earnings Per Share (EPS) excluding foreign exchange impacts, while expanding operating margins by 120 basis points to 30.1%.
How Kinder Morgan Is Balancing Debt & Growth with Game-Changing Projects Set to Power the Future!
- Kinder Morgan reported a quarter with financial performance mostly in line with expectations, pointing to a strong demand for natural gas, particularly driven by LNG exports and increasingly by power generation needs, which include data centers.
- The company is witnessing encouraging demand projections tied to a continued growth in U.S. natural gas consumption, expected to rise significantly by the decade’s end.
- Current transport volumes have reflected the robust demand across key sectors such as residential, commercial, and power generation, with the company citing historical demand benchmarks from past decades to illustrate the potential for continued growth.
Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities
- We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
- A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
- We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries’ basket
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Adriatic Metals, Carta, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Tourism Holdings
- I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
- Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).
Kinetik Holdings: Its New Partnerships In Infrastructure & Power Generation Projects Can Be A Potential Game Changer!
- Kinetik Holdings Inc. has reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating a strong performance that exceeded internal expectations.
- The company announced an increase in its share repurchase program to $500 million, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
- The quarter saw a 7% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $250 million, driven by increased processed gas volumes and margin expansion in their Midstream Logistics segment.
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