In today’s briefing:
- Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April
- NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk
- Empire Energy Group Ltd – All that’s remaining is the gas rate
Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April
- The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
- Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months.
- We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).
NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk
- NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
- Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
- Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning.
Empire Energy Group Ltd – All that’s remaining is the gas rate
- Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
- EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
- Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.
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