In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions
- Tracing Korea’s Flow Dynamics: Short-Term Sector Rotation Plays
- VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman
- Aramco Under Pressure as OPEC-Plus Is Set to Roll the Dice on Supply
- BHP Group: Strategic Commodity Selection & Portfolio Reshaping Be A Breakthrough Move?
- Thyssenkrupp Is Reshaping Its Steel Future With 11,000 Job Cuts; What’s The Expected Margin Impact?
- Dupont de Nemours Strips Down Again—Kevlar & Nomex Sold In $1.8 Billion Shock Deal!
- SCZ: Satisfies Acceleration Option for Bolivian Assets
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 4 September (Shell | Unilever | Fugro)
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- The rankings used for the September 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (3rd September 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).
Tracing Korea’s Flow Dynamics: Short-Term Sector Rotation Plays
- Korea’s seeing classic sector rotation: H1 hot money is exiting shipbuilding and defense ETFs, with 7% of AUM out in a week, as traders hunt the next wave of flows.
- Short-Term plays focus on two angles: policy-driven sectors like retail/dividends, and less-run names. Secondary batteries lead flows, topping local sector ETF net inflows lately.
- Sector rotation trades focus on Sept 11 rebalances: TIGER Secondary Battery TOP 10 and KRX Semis. Long-short setups on top names plus rotation flows could spark notable price moves.
VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman
- What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
- Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
- What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.
Aramco Under Pressure as OPEC-Plus Is Set to Roll the Dice on Supply
- OPEC+’s accelerated supply rollback put Aramco’s earnings and dividend policy under pressure, forcing the oil giant into debt financing despite its unmatched low-cost advantage.
- With subdued Brent prices, Aramco’s cash flow has weakened, making its government-linked dividends increasingly reliant on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.
- Saudi Arabia’s supply gamble boosts long-term dominance but leaves Aramco exposed to near-term financial strain, as market outcomes hinge on OPEC+’s 07/Sep decision.
BHP Group: Strategic Commodity Selection & Portfolio Reshaping Be A Breakthrough Move?
- BHP Group Limited has showcased a complex array of performance metrics and strategic adjustments in its fiscal year 2025 results, revealing both strengths and challenges.
- The company has delivered robust operational performance, achieving record production in key sectors such as iron ore and copper, which underscores BHP’s operational excellence and the competitiveness of its assets.
- Notably, BHP’s margins remain healthy with an EBITDA margin of 53%, suggesting that the company maintains a competitive edge despite a 10% decline due to commodity prices.
Thyssenkrupp Is Reshaping Its Steel Future With 11,000 Job Cuts; What’s The Expected Margin Impact?
- Thyssenkrupp’s recent financial performance and strategic progress provide a mixed outlook for investors.
- The company is undergoing significant transformation, focusing on becoming a strategic holding entity with independently managed business segments.
- A key element of this transformation is the planned spin-off of thyssenkrupp Marine Systems in 2025, which is on track and backed by strong shareholder support.
Dupont de Nemours Strips Down Again—Kevlar & Nomex Sold In $1.8 Billion Shock Deal!
- DuPont has agreed to divest its iconic Kevlar and Nomex Aramids business to Arclin, a specialty materials firm backed by private equity group TJC, in a $1.8 billion transaction.
- The deal structure includes approximately $1.2 billion in cash, a $300 million note receivable, and a $325 million non-controlling stake in Arclin, giving DuPont a 17.5% ownership interest.
- The transaction is part of DuPont’s broader corporate transformation strategy that includes streamlining operations and focusing on core growth areas such as electronics, healthcare, and water.
SCZ: Satisfies Acceleration Option for Bolivian Assets
- Santacruz announced the successful completion of the fourth and fifth payments ($15M), including the final installment, to Glencore.
- This marks the satisfaction of the $40M Acceleration Option to complete the acquisition of the Company’s Bolivian assets.
- With these payments behind it, SCZ is well-positioned to allocate cash toward growth initiatives, M&A, and returning capital to shareholders, building on its proven success with the Bolivian portfolio acquisition.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 4 September (Shell | Unilever | Fugro)
- In this edition: • Shell | decided not to resume construction of its biofuels facility in Rotterdam • Unilever | plans major shake-up of top-200 management • Fugro | awarded two contracts to support Brazil’s offshore energy expansion
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