In today’s briefing:
- The Beat Ideas: Deepak Fertilizers – Specialty Chemical, Capex, Debottlenecking!
- China Opens War Front In Halo Butyl Rubber Trade
- SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/38] Henry Hub Rallies on Tight Storage Gains and Supply Cut Concerns
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/38] WTI Crude Rallies on Fed Rate Cut and Stronger Demand Outlook
- Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): High production in September. The drilling programme has commenced
- DRX: $55M in New Contracts Signed
The Beat Ideas: Deepak Fertilizers – Specialty Chemical, Capex, Debottlenecking!
- Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) commissioned 500KT of ammonia plant that will remove their dependence on import of critical raw material.
- DFPCL’s TAN capacity stands at 629 KTPA, with plans to increase it to 1,000 KTPA by FY26 through a new facility in Gopalpur, Odisha.
- Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) is about to complete its restructuring by creating a separate subsidiary for mining chemicals, which in future they may plan to list separately.
China Opens War Front In Halo Butyl Rubber Trade
- ADD slapped on the US, the EU, the UK, and Singapore imports
- ADD probe initiated against Canada, Japan and India
- Russia to be a major beneficiary of the measures
SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners
- The S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
- 2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
- SPX is “breaking out” which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/38] Henry Hub Rallies on Tight Storage Gains and Supply Cut Concerns
- US natural gas prices rose by 5.6% for the week ending 20/Sep, driven by a shrinking storage surplus and an improved demand outlook.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.69 (20/Sep) from 1.45 the previous week as put volumes rose by 102.7% WoW, while call volumes grew by 74.4%.
- Put OI surged for contracts expiring on 25/Sep, Oct, and Nov. Call OI rose for expiries on Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/38] WTI Crude Rallies on Fed Rate Cut and Stronger Demand Outlook
- WTI futures increased 3.4% for the week ending 20/Sep, driven by the Fed’s rate cut, supply disruptions in Libya, and falling US crude stockpiles, which alleviated demand concerns.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.83 (20/Sep) from 1.30 (13/Sep) as put volume fell by 45.8% WoW while call volume fell by 14.6%.
- WTI OI PCR grew to 0.77 for the week ending 20/Sep from 0.76 on 13/Sep. Call OI fell 16.7% WoW and put OI declined by 16.1%.
Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): High production in September. The drilling programme has commenced
- Current production has reached 950 bbl/d, representing an increase of 90 bbl/d since August.
- This reflects the very good performance of the work-over programme with 98 bbl/d incremental production from three new workovers in Tranche 3 from early August.
- Overall, the programme (three tranches with a total of 11 work-overs so far) has delivered 227 bbl/d of incremental production.
DRX: $55M in New Contracts Signed
- ADF announced $55M in new contracts across Quebec and the U.S. Midwest, including additional work for its U.S. pharmaceutical client.
- Today’s announcement gives us further confidence that ADF can continue to grow the backlog as the infrastructure spending cycle prolongs.
- ADF trades at 3.5x EBITDA, the lowest multiple we have seen since covering the stock and a major discount to its peers and precedent transactions.
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