Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Dundee Precious Metals , Sigma Lithium, Ercros , Crude Oil, Murphy Oil Corp and more

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
• Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

• Pure-Play, Low-Cost Producer with Ambitious Growth: Sigma Lithium is a new, low-cost producer of high-purity, environmentally friendly lithium concentrate from its single asset, the Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil. The company is aggressively expanding, with plans to more than triple production capacity by the end of 2026, positioning it as a significant player in the EV battery supply chain.
• Leveraged to a Volatile but Recovering Lithium Market: The company’s profitability is highly sensitive to lithium prices, which have been volatile after collapsing from 2022 highs. While the market has been oversupplied, projections suggest a tightening supply-demand balance from 2025 onwards, driven by robust EV and energy storage growth, which could provide significant tailwinds.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Equity Profile: As a single-asset company in an emerging market with a short operational history, Sigma carries significant execution and geopolitical risks. However, its industry-leading cost structure, strong ESG credentials, and aggressive, funded expansion plan offer substantial upside potential for investors with a high-risk tolerance.

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• Spain’s Ministry of Economy has validated the CNMC’s conditional approval of Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid, removing all regulatory risk and shifting the focus entirely to CNMV processing, acceptance, and deal execution.
• Ercros’s deteriorating fundamentals and thin liquidity heighten shareholder-acceptance uncertainty; ~75% tender is required, while prior minority opposition and elevated trough-cycle multiples complicate the risk-reward despite regulatory de-risking.
• With shares at €3.30, the spread has compressed to ~6%, offering a short-dated carry trade with a 45–55% annualised IRR if settlement occurs by February 2026, versus a €2.56 break.

• Crude oil futures Friday were little changed although Brent tested weekly highs as doubts grow on the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine settlement.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $63.33/b (1854 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.34/b, but off from the week’s high of $63.76/b.
• Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b , after trade resumed following a technical glitch.

• Murphy Oil Corporation’s third quarter 2025 earnings report indicates a mix of robust operational results tempered by strategic caution amid market volatility.
• The company surpassed its production guidance for the second consecutive quarter, reaching a total production of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day.
• This was bolstered by a strong showing in oil production, averaging 94,000 barrels per day.