In today’s briefing:
- Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree
- Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
- South32 Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Truce’s Soft Extension
- How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/27] WTI Climbed Higher, But Oversupply Jitters Capped Gains
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
- GOTRF: Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd.
Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree
- Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
- Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN).
- Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.
Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
- Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
- June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
- On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.
South32 Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Truce’s Soft Extension
- A global perspective on what happened overnight
How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
- During the week, Trump muscled his Big Beautiful Bill through a divided congress. With that, the bill got passed even right before 4th of July.
- The nearly-900 page bill includes a tax-cut and spending package that is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade.
- Cost-saving to reduce the government debt seems to be completely from the table. The DODGE department seems compared to this bill like a joke.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
- Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at elevated levels for heavy grades, lower-than-usual levels for light grades.
- Base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels for heavy grades, and to consider adjusting production levels for light grades.
- Any such moves to maintain or adjust output would coincide with rise in regional production capacity following completion of most plant-maintenance work.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July
- US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.
- In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.
- US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July
- Asia’s base oils demand could weaken in coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in consumption.
- Signs of more prolonged and widespread drop in regional lube consumption from year-earlier levels would magnify impact of seasonal slowdown.
- Weaker demand in recent months cushions impact of tighter regional supply during that period.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/27] WTI Climbed Higher, But Oversupply Jitters Capped Gains
- WTI futures rose 2.3% for the week ending 03/Jul, buoyed by Iran’s standoff with the UN and stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
- The U.S. rig count fell by eight to 539. The oil rig count fell by seven to 425, while gas rigs dropped by one to 108.
- WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 03/Jul compared to 0.93 on 27/Jun. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI inched up by 0.6%.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
- Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.
- Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.
- Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.
GOTRF: Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd.
- Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration, as well as leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside, during a gold price market that has reached new all-time highs.
- The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2025.
- Since our last update, the Company raised more than C$40 million at premiums to fund and expand the 2025 drill program.
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