In today’s briefing:
- Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
- Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs
- Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Talos Energy Inc: Valuation Discount/Estimate Update
- OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient
- Akzo Nobel NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- [Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1
- Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves addition much larger than expected
- Lloyds Metals: On the Verge of a Massive Ramp-Up
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
- Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
- Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
- Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.
Lanka EDB Sits With Rubber Product Exporters To Tackle US Tariffs
- 85% of Lankan rubber products shipped to US, EU markets
- Tariffs can diminish 28% of US rubber products export revenue
- Govt allocates LKR 1500 million for rubber industry in Budget
Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
- Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
- Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.
Talos Energy Inc: Valuation Discount/Estimate Update
- Talos’ current ~$2.5 billion enterprise value (EV) reflects a 23% discount to the ~$3.2 billion PV-10 of company’s year-end 2024 proved developed reserves using flat prices of $65/bbl for oil and $3/MMBtu for natural gas.
- Total proved reserves at year-end were 194 MMBoe (74% oil/81% liquids). Estimated probable reserves at year-end 2024 were 125.3 MMBoe, having a PV-10 on the same flat pricing of ~$2.7 billion.
- On a proved plus probable basis, the discount widens to 58%. Under SEC pricing ($76.32/bbl and $2.13/MMBtu), the discount was 41% for total proved and 66% for proved plus probable.
OPEC, EIA, and IEA Lower Oil Price Projections; Natural Gas Expected to Be Resilient
- OPEC lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.3m bpd from 1.45m bpd, while the IEA and EIA also revised forecasts down to 0.90m bpd and 0.73m bpd, respectively.
- The EIA significantly lowered its 2025-2026 crude oil price outlook, citing the dual impact of Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to boost output.
- U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures are injecting uncertainty into global oil trade and refining margins.
Akzo Nobel NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- In today’s edition: • AkzoNobel | no major surprises, yet slightly improving underlying trends • BE Semiconductor Industries | order intake remains depressed • Randstad | modest beat of consensus – valuation at attractive level due to share price decline • Corbion | strongly beating consensus – reiterates FY25 guidance • Corbion | another letter from Inclusive Capital • InPost | signs multi-year contact with Vinted • Just Eat TakeAway.com | reiterates FY25 guidance, expects offer to commence in 2Q25 • PostNL/DHL | DHL deploys first APMs at Praxis DIY stores • Corporate agenda | week 17 – 21
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green, JSW Steel
- US President Donald Trump has told reporters that US tariffs on China will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero. It used to be zero”.
- Meanwhile, Mr Trump stated that he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but would like to see him be “a little more active” in lowering interest rates.
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals Ahead of Q1
- Schlumberger will report its Q1 earnings on 25/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to subdued oil prices and demand.
- Schlumberger’s OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with a 96% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
- For the 25/Apr expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 42, 43, and 45, while puts dominate at 34, 33, and 32, with lower put OI at key levels.
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves addition much larger than expected
- YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%).
- This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves – an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production.
- The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG.
Lloyds Metals: On the Verge of a Massive Ramp-Up
- Resource-Backed Growth Story: Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd. owns 857 MT of iron ore reserves (including 700 MT BHQ) with a 50-year lease, providing unmatched raw material security.
- Transformational Expansion + MDO Play: Ongoing capex will ramp mining to 25+ MTPA and add 4.2 MTPA of steel capacity. Acquisition of Thriveni’s MDO business adds high-margin, annuity-style revenue stream.
- Tax-Efficient, Debt-Light Strategy: Supported by Maharashtra’s IPS benefits, Lloyds is executing a capital-intensive buildout while aiming to remain net-debt free and structurally cost-advantaged.
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