In today’s briefing:
- GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer Gets a Boost as Mengniu Sells Down
- NPS Stake in Korea Zinc Revealed: EGM Vote Locked, Short Play in Focus
- U.S. Rig Count Steady for the Fourth Consecutive Week
- EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility
- Farmers Launch Stir Phase II; Rubber Board Warns Of Price Fall
- The Beat Ideas: Synergy Green~Riding the Windmill Capex Theme
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/01] WTI Rises for Second Straight Week on Improved Demand Outlook
- China Hongqiao – Event Flash – Roadshowing USD 3Y Regs Notes – Lucror Analytics
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/01] Henry Hub Drops Amid Volatile Weather and Demand Forecasts
- New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Tariki-5A well test performance towards the upper end of expectations
GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer Gets a Boost as Mengniu Sells Down
- China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s largest customer, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder. Mengniu opposes the Shandong Xinjufeng offer.
- This development suggests that Mengniu has low confidence in a management competing offer and will likely shift its business away from GA Pack.
- The stake sale will help the Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) offer turn unconditional as it will nudge minorities to tender, partly due to GA Pack’s uncertain outlook.
NPS Stake in Korea Zinc Revealed: EGM Vote Locked, Short Play in Focus
- NPS’s stake has dropped, and most minority shareholders are passive. NPS might oppose cumulative voting, so Choi’s chances of getting 67% support at the EGM on the 23rd are slim.
- The showdown is between MBK’s 14 picks and Choi’s 7. Without cumulative voting, even with NPS’s shares, Choi’s chances of beating MBK are slim.
- If you’re short on Korea Zinc, holding seems fine. Backwardation in Jan-Feb futures isn’t steep, so a new position before the EGM could also be worth a shot.
U.S. Rig Count Steady for the Fourth Consecutive Week
- The U.S. oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 589 for the week ending on 03/Jan.
- For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.57m bpd from 13.59m bpd the week prior.
- The U.S. oil rig count declined by one to 482, while active gas rigs increased by one to 103. Producers added one rig in Texas and cut one in Louisiana.
EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility
- Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
- Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
- Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.
Farmers Launch Stir Phase II; Rubber Board Warns Of Price Fall
- Farmer body asks farmers not to go for ‘summer tapping’
- Rubber Board exhorts farmers to up tapping to discourage imports
- Farmers allege Rubber Board catering to interests of tire-makers
The Beat Ideas: Synergy Green~Riding the Windmill Capex Theme
- Synergy Green Industries (SYGIL IN) Expansion of foundry to add new capacity to supply new customers (Envision). Company plans to increase its capacity from 30,000 MT to 45,000 MT.
- Machining unit to help improve margins as 50% of total machining would be done in-house. Solar power to add to EBITDA margins as electricity costs account for 8% of revenue.
- Execution by management has been commendable due to experience in the industry.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/01] WTI Rises for Second Straight Week on Improved Demand Outlook
- WTI futures rose 4.8% for the week ending 03/Jan, led by improving outlook on China and declining U.S. crude oil stockpiles.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.03 from 0.97 (27/Dec) last week, as call volume grew by 57.9% WoW while put volume increased by 68.1%.
- WTI OI PCR rose to 0.93 from 0.89 last week. Call OI inched up by 4.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 8.9%.
China Hongqiao – Event Flash – Roadshowing USD 3Y Regs Notes – Lucror Analytics
- This morning, China Hongqiao held a roadshow to market USD benchmark-sized three-year RegS bonds.
- The expected issuance size is USD 300-400 mn (capped at USD 400 mn).
- The order book is reported at USD 2 bn (including USD 395 mn interest from the 15 joint global coordinators).
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/01] Henry Hub Drops Amid Volatile Weather and Demand Forecasts
- U.S. natural gas prices dipped 0.9% for the week ending 03/Jan, as robust early-week gains were eroded by volatile weather forecasts.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.37 from 1.05 (27/Dec) the previous week as call volumes increased by 86.4% WoW, while put volumes surged by 141.6%.
- Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.87 from 0.85 compared to last week. Call OI inched up by 4.9% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.5%.
New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Tariki-5A well test performance towards the upper end of expectations
- • Tariki-5A has been perforated over the top 8 m of the 20 m of gas bearing sands intersected.
- Gas sales have commenced.
- • The well initially flowed at estimated rates increasing from 2 to 5.5 mmcf/d during clean-up.
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