In today’s briefing:
- GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
- Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole
- Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
- The Drill: Strap in for Trump
- [2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil
- Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production
- Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors
- TOC: Surface Work Expands Zones & Drilling Continues
- Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good 4Q24 WI production and sales
- GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Low 2025 production on strategy shift but 50% increase in Argentina’s 2P reserves
GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
- Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
- My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
- With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?
Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole
- The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
- One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
- In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.
Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
- The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
- It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
- The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.
The Drill: Strap in for Trump
- Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
- While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
- Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.
[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil
- Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
- JPMorgan raised Occidental’s price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
- Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.
Malaysia Firms Up Base In Rubber With Impressive Nov Production
- Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
- SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
- Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production
Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors
- During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.
- In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.
- Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.
TOC: Surface Work Expands Zones & Drilling Continues
- What you need to know: • Tocvan announced surface exploration results for 188 rock chip samples and nine infill soil samples at the Gran Pilar Project.
- • Today’s results confirm four new target zones spanning 1.8km by 1.0km and early sampling in another area indicate a large-scale system.
- • Four drill holes totalling 408m have been completed with assays pending.
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Good 4Q24 WI production and sales
- • 4Q24 WI production and sales were respectively 24.7-25.2 mboe/d and 23.6-24.1 mboe/d; which is in the middle of the guidance range of 23.8-26.7 mboe/d for production and 22.9-25.3 mboe/d for sales.
- • 2025 should be an important year for value creation with potential reserves additions in Gabon and the FPSO upgrade in Cote d’Ivoire.
- • The detailed 2025 programme will be disclosed by March.
GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Low 2025 production on strategy shift but 50% increase in Argentina’s 2P reserves
- • 4Q24 production was 31,489 boe/d.
- Excluding Argentina (as the acquisition has not completed yet), this is ~1.4 mboe/d below our forecasts.
- The shortfall is primarily due to CPO-5, which experienced more blockades than anticipated, resulting in actual production of 6.4 mbbl/d compared to our expectation of 7.5 mbbl/d.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
