Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Hang Seng Index, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Gold, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Criterium Energy, Montero Mining and Exploration and more

• Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
• Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels. 
• Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

• US natural gas market experiencing significant weather-related demand in January, with colder than 10-year normal temperatures
• Europe facing tight gas market balances and lower storage levels, requiring increased LNG imports to reach storage targets
• Uncertainty around Russian pipeline gas increases to Europe and potential impact of US sanctions on Russian energy sectors present bearish risk factors for gas prices

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• The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.
• For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.

• The Investmentcase for Gold Some time has passed since I wrote the last time about gold.
• Currently, a situation is developing that could become interesting for investors in the shiny metal.
• While till this day many market experts have the opinion that the gold price is highly correlated to the US-Dollar as well as the relative trajectory of where yields are headed, I think that gold is primarily driven by liquidity conditions.

• Exports go up in Oct but slips in Nov over dismal tire show
• EDB focuses on auto component exports strengthening
• Exporters, manufacturers visit Thailand for updates and avenues

• 4Q24 production was 957 bbld (880 bbl/d in 3Q24).
• January’s production so far is 1,020 bbl/d.
• This excludes the impact of the last four workovers of the 2024 programme.

• Montero Mining (TSX-V: MON) recently signed a $27 million settlement agreement with Tanzania over the expropriation of its Wigu Hill rare earth project.
• As someone who’s been an early investor in Montero along with similar cases like Indiana Resources and Winshear Gold (the “Tanzania Triple Play”), I’ve seen firsthand how these situations can play out, and Montero’s setup looks particularly interesting right now.
• Idea Hive and Jeremy Raper have done a great breakdown of this on their various channels, and I agree with their take—this stock has a lot going for it with minimal downside risk at the moment given the 31 cent trading price and could present an attractive IRR (but not a huge absolute return).