In today’s briefing:
- Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
- James Hardie Industries: Initiation of Coverage- $625 Million Synergy Blueprint Set to Reshape Industry Dynamics!
- [Earnings Preview] Crude and LNG Slump to Undercut TotalEnergies Q2 Performance
- [IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist
- [ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak
- Northern Star Resources: Initiation of Coverage- Why Mining Stabilization at Super Pit Could Be a Game-Changer!
- Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Refining the path to first production in the Paradox. About to start drilling in the Rockies
- Santos Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Power Moves in Contracts, Decommissioning, & Growth!
- APM: Q2 Production Results; Expecting Large Cashflow
Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
- Some still think we must close the borrow pre-settlement in a stock-for-stock merger. But KSD handles it fine — no need to pre-cover if shares stay lendable post-swap.
- Spread flipped negative — rare setup in Korea. Tight float on both sides (insider-heavy) is killing liquidity and borrow, leading to this reverse arb play.
- Deal break risk is minimal, new share listing is relatively soon, and the negative spread may widen—making this a compelling setup for a reverse arb play.
James Hardie Industries: Initiation of Coverage- $625 Million Synergy Blueprint Set to Reshape Industry Dynamics!
- James Hardie Industries Plc demonstrated a mixed performance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, underpinned by its strategic growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions.
- Despite facing a softer demand environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company managed to achieve its financial targets, indicative of its strategic agility and operational discipline.
- On the positive side, James Hardie’s focus on strategic investments and scaling the organization has borne fruit.
[Earnings Preview] Crude and LNG Slump to Undercut TotalEnergies Q2 Performance
- TotalEnergies’ Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 17.2% QoQ and 19.4% YoY. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 8.7% QoQ and 15.7% YoY.
- TotalEnergies is expected to post its weakest quarterly revenue and EPS reading since Q1 2021, as falling crude and LNG prices overshadow gains in refining.
- With 80% of earnings tied to upstream and LNG, even strong production and steady downstream performance leave little room for upside.
[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist
- Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.
- Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.
- Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.
[ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak
- Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.
- SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.
- WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.
Northern Star Resources: Initiation of Coverage- Why Mining Stabilization at Super Pit Could Be a Game-Changer!
- Northern Star Resources Ltd’s March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.
- The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.
- The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company’s low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.
Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Refining the path to first production in the Paradox. About to start drilling in the Rockies
- • The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d.
- Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11.
- Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well.
Santos Limited: Initiation of Coverage- Power Moves in Contracts, Decommissioning, & Growth!
- Santos Limited reported its 2024 full-year financial and operational results, presenting a detailed picture of the company’s current status, achievements, and challenges.
- The company highlighted a strong financial performance supported by disciplined cost controls, robust revenues, and significant strategic projects either completed or progressing as scheduled.
- On the positive side, Santos reported sales revenue of $5.4 billion, which translated into $3.7 billion in EBITDAX and $1.2 billion in profit after tax.
APM: Q2 Production Results; Expecting Large Cashflow
- What you need to know: • APM reported its Q2 production results, producing 24.3Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets, softer than our estimates (primarily due to seasonality that we have now adjusted for).
- • Management reiterated that 60% of its annual production will be mined in H2 and that it remains on track for the top end of guidance.
- APM remains set up to generate large cash flow in the quarter, growing into H2.
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