Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JFE Holdings, Vale , Crude Oil, Olin Corp, Isamu Paint, KNOT Offshore Partners LP, Malaysia Smelting Corp, Tecnicas Reunidas Sa, Ambuja Cements and more

• BPSL JV gives JFE a scalable India platform, shifting long-term growth away from a stagnant Japan market.
• Balance-Sheet impact is manageable, with optional liquidity from the ¥500 bn JSW stake.
• Valuation deeply discounted at 0.5× P/B and US$525/t despite rising mix, India optionality, and multi-year earnings normalization.

• Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
• Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
• Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.

• The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970’s and mid-2000s commodity bull market
• Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
• A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets

• Olin Corp. is a leading, vertically integrated global manufacturer of chemical products and ammunition, operating through its Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester segments.
• The company is navigating a challenging petrochemical environment by focusing on a U.S.-centric sales strategy and prioritizing cash generation and shareholder returns, which has allowed it to outperform peers.
• Financial performance has been under pressure, with declining revenue and net income over the past three years, reflecting weak demand, low prices, and higher input costs in the broader chemical sector.

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• Isamu Paint is a specialized Japanese manufacturer with a primary focus on high-quality automotive refinish paints, complemented by industrial and architectural coatings.
• The company exhibits solid financial health, characterized by consistent revenue and net income growth over the past three years, alongside a strong balance sheet indicated by a high resilience score.
• Valuation appears attractive, with the company trading at a significant discount to its larger peers on key metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA, suggesting a potential value opportunity for investors.

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• KNOT Offshore Partners received a non-binding privatization proposal at $10/unit, with historical MLP buyouts often resulting in higher offers.
• Golden Entertainment’s Chairman bids to acquire the company at 1x EBITDA, with activists pushing for better terms.
• Yext’s Chairman and CEO proposed a non-binding privatization offer at $9/share, inviting competing bids for potential price increases.

• Malaysia Smeltings Corp (MSC) is a leading global integrated tin producer, with operations spanning both upstream tin mining and downstream tin smelting. Its strategic shift to the modern, more efficient Pulau Indah smelter is a key catalyst for margin improvement and reduced environmental impact.
• The company’s financial performance is intrinsically linked to volatile global tin prices. While recent years have seen fluctuations in profitability, the long-term demand outlook for tin is robust, driven by its critical role in electronics, renewable energy (solar panels), and electric vehicles.
• MSC is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its mining output. The consolidation of smelting operations at the new Pulau Indah facility and the potential expansion of its mining footprint are expected to be key drivers of future growth and profitability.

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• Tecnicas Reunidas is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global energy transition, with a growing focus on low-carbon technologies, LNG, and decarbonization projects, which are expected to be significant long-term growth drivers.
• The company has demonstrated a strong operational turnaround, evidenced by a record backlog of €11.5 billion as of September 2025 and a significant increase in revenue and profitability, signaling a robust recovery and strong earnings visibility.
• While the company’s pivot to higher-growth areas is promising, it faces inherent risks tied to the cyclicality of the energy sector, intense competition, and the challenges of executing large-scale, complex projects with potential for cost overruns and delays.

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• Crude oil futures on Thursday were climbing higher, as benchmarks maintained the firmer start to December, albeit amid conflicting signals.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.31/b (2033 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $62.67/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $ 59.72/b against a previous close of $58.95/b.
• Prices have found some support this week from the fading prospects of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the broader rise in geopolitical tensions, but it has not been enough to shake off the gloom around a growing surplus.

• Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business.
• This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E.
• ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals.