In today’s briefing:
- New World Resources (NWC AU): Yes, The Board Is Frustrating Kinterra’s Bid
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations
- Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift
- Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something’s Up (As Is The Share Price)
- Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/26] Conflicting Factory Signals and Rising IO Inventories
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #13: The Copper Surge Continues
- OPEC, IEA, EIA Forecast Rising Oil Supply, Sluggish Demand
- Warriedar Resources Limited – Gold Tinted with a Critical Mineral
- Covestro: Initiation of Coverage- A €400 Million STRONG Program Sets Stage for Profit-Driven Reinvention!
New World Resources (NWC AU): Yes, The Board Is Frustrating Kinterra’s Bid
- Suitors Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra Capital are locked at A$0.062/share bids apiece for copper play New World Resources (NWC AU).
- Kinterra has tapped the Takeovers Panel after NWC failed to terminate the CAML placement “despite the relevant condition for the termination of that agreement having been satisfied“.
- Kinterra’s application has merit. Expect the Panel to make orders preventing the placement. Kinterra currently holds 19.3% of shares out and CAML 12.08%.
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations
- The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.
- There are several potential ADDs/DELs for the Index Rebal Event in September 2025 but as yet most are Medium Conviction. There are a couple of large capping flows expected.
Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift
- Mitsui & Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.
- Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets
- However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.
Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something’s Up (As Is The Share Price)
- Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global’s failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play Coronado (CRN AU)‘s shares trading around an all-time low.
- Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.
- What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.
Global Macro Outlook (July): Trump Volatility Playbook Offers Clues for July Positioning
- Across markets realized volatility generally came in below implied, making June favorable for volatility sellers.
- July has historically rewarded vol sellers; we reference a prior Insight on volatility during Trump’s first term highlighting a large deviation from average in July.
- Average July returns are mixed, but there are clear standouts among the macro markets.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/26] Conflicting Factory Signals and Rising IO Inventories
- China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7, while Caixin jumped to 50.4, highlighting a divergence driven by survey scope, timing, and domestic demand strength.
- Taiwan’s 20.15% steel tariffs may slash Chinese exports, triggering domestic oversupply, weaker prices, and reduced iron ore demand amid growing regional trade uncertainty.
- Portside inventories climbed as arrivals rose, outpacing stable port demand and pointing to further stockpile growth.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #13: The Copper Surge Continues
- Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities.
- The week after we flagged it, the basket bounced, presumably on events in the Middle East, and this week has given back most of those returns.
- The basket has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and is bouncing along the 200-day moving average.
OPEC, IEA, EIA Forecast Rising Oil Supply, Sluggish Demand
- OPEC maintained steady demand forecasts, while the IEA and EIA cut 2025 growth estimates. All agencies see limited near-term catalysts for a meaningful rise in global oil demand.
- OPEC, EIA, and IEA project rising oil supply, driven by non-OPEC producers and near-term OPEC+ overproduction.
- The EIA remains bullish on Henry Hub gas prices, forecasting strong demand and tightening supply through late 2025.
Warriedar Resources Limited – Gold Tinted with a Critical Mineral
- Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
- Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
- Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.
Covestro: Initiation of Coverage- A €400 Million STRONG Program Sets Stage for Profit-Driven Reinvention!
- Covestro AG, a noted player in the polymers industry, recently disclosed its Q1 2025 financial results, indicating a period of stable sales but highlighted by several challenges impacting its performance.
- The company achieved a revenue of EUR 3.5 billion, nearly unchanged from the previous year, while the EBITDA stood at EUR 137 million, which is notably in the upper range of their guidance.
- However, this reflects a substantial 50% drop yearover-year due to significant costs associated with the company’s ongoing transformation initiatives.
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