In today’s briefing:
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- Ring Energy, Inc: Estimate Update
- Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Robust 1H25 Cashflow Ahead of Production Boost in 2H25.
- TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).
- Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
- Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
- Energy Technology (40% of the index) was down 5.2%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 5.0%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (20% of the index) was down 4.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 17.3%.
- Top 10 Performers: NXHSF, LISMF, KARX, AMSC, GNRC, AWLIF, NWTN, TPCS, CPSH, GRDAF
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
- Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
- Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- US base oils export price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices extends fall at end-July 2025.
- Weaker base oils export margins and signs of rising surplus supply could incentivize refiners to adjust output.
- Steadier domestic base oils margins, and steady removal of surplus supplies in overseas markets, could instead curb any such moves.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to lock in supplies to meet seasonal pick-up in demand during final weeks of Q3 2025.
- Demand could have already got steady underlying support in recent weeks because of tighter-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q3 2025.
- Persistently tighter fundamentals could prompt buyers to maintain higher stocks until they are confident about any sustained improvement in supply.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
- Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
- Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
- FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
- Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
- Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
- Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.
Ring Energy, Inc: Estimate Update
- We are updating our estimates to reflect actual 2Q25 benchmark oil and natural gas prices.
- Our NYMEX reference prices averaged $63.68/bbl for oil and $3.51/MMBtu for natural gas.
- Our 2Q25 total production estimate is 21.5 Mboe/d, including 14.2 MBo/d of oil.
Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Robust 1H25 Cashflow Ahead of Production Boost in 2H25.
- While 1H25 production was only 24.7 mboe/d with BKR producing 16.7 mboe/d, Serica’s FY25 production guidance of 33-35 mboe/d implies a significant 2H25 uplift to 41.3–45.3 mboe/d, as Triton ramps up to full production and BKR rebounds.
- We continue to forecast 4Q25 production of ~48 mboe/d, supported by expected contributions of 21– 22 mboe/d from BKR and ~25 mboe/d from Triton.
- Production in 2H25 will benefit from new wells coming onstream as a result of Triton drilling, with five successful well delivered nearly a month ahead of schedule and ~US$31 mm under budget.
TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).
- TRX Gold Corporation is a gold producer operating the Buckreef Gold Mine in Tanzania under a joint venture with the State Mining Corporation (“STAMICO”).
- An investment in the Company gives leverage to a growing production profile based on a sound PEA business plan, capitalizing on higher gold prices and the ability to be self-funded.
- This plan sees production growth from 27,000 to over 90,000 ounces per year over the next five years.
Vista Energy Reported a Transformational Second Quarter in 2025.
- Vista Energy reported a transformational second quarter in 2025.
- The company’s acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica has significantly expanded its production capacity, making it the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.
- In Q2 2025, Vista reported a substantial increase in total production, which reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, reflecting an 81% year-over-year growth.
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