Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Peak Rare Earths, Crude Oil, Gold, Iron Ore, JTEKT India, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

• On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
• Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. 
• The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. 

• Asian gasoline market saw strengthening in mid August, with cracks rebounding to around $10 per barrel
• Demand for non oxygenated low sulphur blend stocks increasing, driven by policy changes in Australia and the Middle East
• Malaysia’s subsidy increase for 95 RON gasoline impacting interron spreads and market volatility, potential challenges in transitioning to Eurofi standard gasoline by 2027

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• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been flat since April but started to take off after mid-August.
• Question: from a purely tactical perspective, is it still a good time to buy Gold? The precious metal is massively overbought at the moment, according to our model.
• Our tactical forecast: Gold (GOLD COMDTY)could go a bit higher, but it is so overbought that the short-term upside is probably limited. 

• Chinese mills eye production restart, boosting iron ore demand, but bloated construction steel inventories threaten to cap price gains.
• Managed money participants increased net long exposure to 134.9k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 11.2%.
• Bullish MA crossover drove prices above short-term averages. However, prices pressing the upper Bollinger band suggest overextension and heightened risk of a near-term pullback.

• JTEKT India outpaced industry growth in FY25 with CVJ commercialization and a 100% system supplier role for Maruti’s upcoming EV. 
• Strong OEM stickiness and global hub positioning provide revenue visibility, but heavy capex and margin compression weigh on near-term returns. 
• Growth remains structurally intact, but the story shifts to a transition phase, earnings quality and capital efficiency will stay constrained until FY27.

• SR demand in FY 2025 surges 9.3%, outpacing 6.1% rise in output  
• Imports rise nearly 17% YoY to 413,627 tons in FY 2024-25  
• Reclaimed Rubber consumption up 8.55% to 167,500 tons