In today’s briefing:
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices
- Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
- Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays
- Perimeter: Private-Equity GP Economics in Public Markets
- Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): The Road to 50 Mboe/D by 2030
- NIM: Commencing Gold and Silver Production at its Merritt Mill
- Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Potential resources addition in EG, reducing costs in Gabon
- Forum Energy Technologies, Inc: Free Cash Flow Outlook Supports Share Repurchase Plan
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices
- With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&P/ASX20 Index, S&P/ASX50 Index and S&P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index in June.
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
- While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.
Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
- EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions
- USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs
- Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness
Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays
- Iron ore mining capacity expansion from 2.35 MTPA to 6 MTPA and pellet capacity from 2.7 MTPA to 4.7 MTPA expected by 3QFY26 with full ramp-up by Q4 FY26.
- 4QFY25 consolidated revenues of ₹1,468 crore, with EBITDA at ₹318 crore and PAT at ₹221 crore, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year due to lower realizations.
- Valuations appear reasonable driven by steady earnings growth backed by capacity addition, mine expansion and operational efficiencies.
Perimeter: Private-Equity GP Economics in Public Markets
- It wouldn’t shock me if the word “SPAC” itself has a negative connotation in your mind, but of course, it doesn’t inherently imply anything nefarious.
- A SPAC or “Special Purpose Acquisition Company” is just a publicly traded shell corporation that raises capital through an IPO to merge with or acquire a private business, enabling that target to become publicly listed without undergoing its own traditional IPO.
- EverArc Holdings, an acquisition company listed in London in December 2019, raised ~$340 million and staffed its board with some heavy hitters: TransDigm co-founder Nick Howley, “Outsiders” author-investor Will Thorndike, and Berkshire alumna Tracy Britt Cool, among others .
Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): The Road to 50 Mboe/D by 2030
- During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated.
- Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI).
- The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross production.
NIM: Commencing Gold and Silver Production at its Merritt Mill
- What you need to know: • Nicola announced that it has started receiving ore from Talisker Resources and is currently undergoing pre-production preparation.
- • The Company expects to reach full milling capacity (200tpd) by Q3.
- • 640t of run-of-mine material have already been delivered to the Merritt Mill, with stockpiling underway ahead of processing.
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Potential resources addition in EG, reducing costs in Gabon
- • 1Q25 production of ~12 mbbl/d and net debt at the end of March had been previously disclosed.
- • The company has reaffirmed its FY25 production guidance of 11–13 mbbl/d but has raised its expected capex for 2025 from US$35 mm to US$40 mm.
- This increase reflects additional spending to appraise the Bourdon discovery.
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc: Free Cash Flow Outlook Supports Share Repurchase Plan
- FET expects FY25 free cash flow to fall within management’s original guidance range of $40-60 million despite macro headwinds that could affect 2H25 spending patterns by its customers.
- 1Q25 free cash flow totaled $7.2 million and, because of seasonal events, is typically the company’s lowest free cash flow quarter in a calendar year.
- FET is actively managing its business in anticipation of potentially lower demand driven by macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty.
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