Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd, Copper, Imdex Ltd, Crude Oil, Rex International Holding, Shin Etsu Chemical, Base Oil, Weatherford International , Matador Resources Co, Range Resources and more

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
• Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.
• Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.

• The copper trade still gets lots of attention. Reason for us to dig a little deeper and evaluate emerging opportunities.

• Let’s also evaluate the “fundamental” reason market participants have why COMEX Copper is so much pricier than LME copper…

• The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported refined copper into the US has triggered a widening of the COMEX-LME-Spread from 11% to 27%.

• European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to ‘not great’ from ‘better than expected’.
• The Nasdaq edged to a new high, but enthusiasm across the board was weak.
• ASX futures are suggesting a soft start as Australia and other countries remain in the US line of sight for blanket 15%-20% tariffs.

• Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia expires on September 2nd, potentially leading to sanctions and increased weapons supplies to Ukraine
• EU’s new price cap on Russian crude takes effect on September 3rd, aiming to curtail Russia’s energy revenues and strengthen anti-circumvention measures
• Snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered in September, adding to global oil price volatility and uncertainty

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• Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks with a net inflow of S$334 million from July 18 to 24.
• Four primary-listed companies conducted share buybacks totaling S$29.8 million, led by United Overseas Bank’s repurchase of 800,000 shares.
• Ginko-AGT Global Growth Fund increased its stake in ISOTeam, acquiring 5,986,600 shares at S$0.086 each.

• Shin-Etsu Chemical’s fiscal Q1/26 results were inline with expectations, with EBIT down -12.6% yoy as margins declined yoy for all of its divisions 
• However, FY26E guidance disappointed markets, with a -14.4% decline in operating income, well below consensus’ already weak 0.6% forecast, and the stock fell -9.5%
• Shin-Etsu has trades at a P/B premium to the Japan chemical sector even with a lower ROE, providing limited valuation support especially given a weak operating outlook 

• Asia’s base oils demand could get support as buyers focus on locking in supply to cover requirements during final weeks of Q3 2025.
• Dynamic would highlight disconnect between typical seasonal slowdown in lube demand in month of August and need to secure base oils supplies to meet pick-up in demand at end of third quarter.
• Expectations of sufficient supply could prompt buyers to maintain balanced inventories rather than to seek larger stocks.

• Weatherford International’s second quarter 2025 financial results reveal a company operating amidst industrywide challenges but demonstrating resilience through strategic measures.
• The company experienced various regional performances, with notable market conditions impacting outcomes, such as the reduced revenues in North America due to Canada’s seasonal spring breakup and divestitures in Argentina.
• These circumstances, alongside an unstable Mexican market that has stabilized but is expected to see a 60% decline in activity for the year, influenced overall performance.

• Matador Resources Company reported a solid financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2025, attributing its success to significant contributions from its leadership team and strategic initiatives.
• The company emphasized its commitment to increasing both production and free cash flow in tandem, highlighting a strong financial foundation bolstered by a $1.8 billion available line of credit.
• This financial flexibility supports the company’s drilling and cash flow opportunities.

• Range Resources Corporation reported strong financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, driven by consistent well performances and several efficiency gains across operations.
• The company demonstrated significant free cash flow generation, allowing for shareholder returns and bolstering its long-term growth strategy amid a rising demand environment for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
• Key positive highlights include the execution of efficient operations, which resulted in lower-than-anticipated capital expenditures, enabling Range Resources to revise its capital guidance.