In today’s briefing:
- Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
- New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Firms A$0.057/Share Off-Market Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Shin Kong Replacement + One Dark Horse TDIV Potential DEL
- New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Raises to A$0.062, Next Move Kinterra
- Asian Dividend Gems: Takasago International Corporation
- Santos Ltd – Next Week At A Glance – 23-27 Jun 2025
- Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 June (Shell | Randstad Holding)
- Nanoco: Potential Upside Amidst IP Valuation and Cash Distribution Plans
- Cheniere Energy: Bulletproof Long-Term Contracts And 4 Critical Factors Providing Revenue Stability!
Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
- There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
- The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply?
- And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets?
New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Firms A$0.057/Share Off-Market Offer
- Kinterra has now firmed an off-market Offer for at A$0.057/share for copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
- Kinterra’s Bidder’s Statement will be dispatched no later than the 10th July, at which time the Offer will open. A Target statement is expected 15 days later.
- Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has matchng rights. Expect those rights to be used.
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Shin Kong Replacement + One Dark Horse TDIV Potential DEL
- The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
- Currently, we see no changes for T50 and one change for T100 in September.
New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Raises to A$0.062, Next Move Kinterra
- After market close, CAML acquired a total of 253.0 million New World Resources (NWC AU) shares via off-market trades, representing 7.08% of the outstanding shares, at A$0.062 per share.
- Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)’s scheme and takeover offer has increased to A$0.062, a 12.7% premium to CAML’s previous A$0.055 offer and an 8.8% premium to Kinterra’s A$0.057 offer.
- CAML and Kinterra’s stake prevents the other from exercising compulsory acquisition rights. Despite CAML’s offer representing a 121.4% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war.
Asian Dividend Gems: Takasago International Corporation
- Takasago International (4914 JP) is the number one player in Japan/Asia in the Flavor and Fragrance business.
- The company’s dividend yield also increased sharply from 2.2% in FY24 to 3.8% in FY25, on the back of strong growth in earnings and solid dividend payout (35% in FY25).
- Core customers of the company (Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, L’Oréal, Unilever, Kao, and Suntory) are very careful and cautious in terms of what companies they buy these products from.
Santos Ltd – Next Week At A Glance – 23-27 Jun 2025
- A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week
Marginal Cost Reduction from Copper Shipment Deal
- BHP announced an AUD1.5bn (US$1.0bn) deal with Aurizon for transport logistics for South Australia Copper, which could affect about 5% of EBITDA and reduce costs marginally
- The shares declined over the past month on declining iron ore and coal prices, and while copper has risen on supply side issues, we see risks of a H2/25 drop
- The company looks about fairly valued on an ROE to P/B comparison versus its Australian peers and the current price is almost exactly inline with our DCF valuation
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 26 June (Shell | Randstad Holding)
- In this edition: • Shell | denies WSJ report on exploratory talks with BP • Randstad Holding | CareerBuilder + Monster is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Nanoco: Potential Upside Amidst IP Valuation and Cash Distribution Plans
- Nanoco’s market cap is £19m, with £15.2m cash as of March 2025, and potential 50% upside from sale.
- The company is pursuing a sale process, reaching out to over 200 targets, with non-binding bids expected.
- Nanoco’s IP portfolio includes over 350 patents, valued at £46m on the balance sheet, with potential litigation proceeds.
Cheniere Energy: Bulletproof Long-Term Contracts And 4 Critical Factors Providing Revenue Stability!
- Cheniere Energy’s first quarter 2025 earnings outlined a mix of achievements and challenges for the company, reflecting its position as a leading LNG provider.
- The company reported strong financial performance for the quarter, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA reaching approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow at around $1.3 billion, and net income of $350 million.
- Despite this strong performance, the company faces an evolving market landscape characterized by heightened volatility, geopolitical risks, and shifting global trade dynamics.
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