Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SICC, CRB Commodity Index, Amman Mineral Internasional, Vishnu Chemicals , JSW Steel Ltd, Nanoco Group PLC, Del Monte Pacific, Rex American Resources, Magnera, Geo Energy Resources and more

• SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, raised around US$260m in its H-share listing.
• In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
• We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• Key Trends: Precious metals, cobalt, and rare earths sustain leadership, while uranium equities face a short-term correction despite strong structural drivers.
• Key Idea: Markets reward miners with policy support, scale, and cost efficiency, while penalizing those exposed to cyclical weakness or geopolitical uncertainty.
• Key News: China tightened rare earth quotas, India moved forward on steel safeguard duties, and uranium equities corrected even as nuclear fundamentals remain robust

• Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.
• Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.
• Valuation: At ~USD 38bn (IDR 8,400/share), AMMN already prices in Elang optionality; conservative SOTP points to 20–25% downside, leaving the stock fully valued.

• Vishnu Chemicals is expanding beyond its core chromium and barium verticals with a first-mover entry into strontium carbonate, positioning itself as the only producer in India and Asia.
• Strategic backward integration in chrome ore and barites mining reduces raw material volatility, safeguarding margins while strengthening long-term supply security.
• Near-Term growth guidance has been moderated to 10–15% due to U.S. tariff headwinds, but diversification and capacity expansion support a structurally stronger growth trajectory.

• On 18 Aug 2025, JSW and POSCO agreed to explore a 6mt steel JV in Odisha under a 50:50 structure.
• JSW to reach 51.5mt by FY31 via Indian expansions; POSCO to hit 52mt by 2030 through green steel upgrades in Korea and overseas growth.
• Strategic Positive: The JV blends JSW’s domestic scale with POSCO’s technology and global network, accelerating India’s steel hub ambitions.

Nanoco’s trading update indicates that the business is making encouraging commercial progress since Dmitry Shashkov took over as CEO in October 2024. If all goes to plan, this should result in further commercial agreements with existing and new customers and applications in H225. Meanwhile, cash burn remains well under control, with net cash of £14.0m at period end versus £15.2m at the interims.

• Oxley Holdings’ ADT surged to S$0.583 million since May, a 10.6× increase, with S$5.3 million profit before tax in 1HFY25.
• UOB-Kay Hian Holdings recorded S$23.09 million net institutional inflow, with P/E ratio rising from 7x to 10x.
• Non-index mid and small cap stocks attracted over S$100 million net institutional inflows since May, led by UOBKH and CSE Global.

• We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
• We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
• SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.

• I expect relatively stable revenue in fiscal 2026 (flat to slightly down), barring a macro shock.
• However, with progress on synergies (65% of the $55MM net synergy target expected to be realized in fiscal 2026) and Project CORE (more on this below), I believe adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will grow.
• I continue to be impressed with the management team. Their focus is on generating cash, shaped by their experience running Berry under several different private equity sponsors (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Apollo).

• Geo Energy’s dividend policy commits to at least 30% of profit, with recent dividends showing a 25% increase.
• In 1H2025, Geo Energy nearly doubled sales volume, boosting revenue by 71% and achieving US$20.1 million net profit.
• Geo Energy’s integrated infrastructure supports revenue diversification through toll and jetty usage fees, enhancing financial stability.