In today’s briefing:
- Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
- Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
- [WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
- Something Is Brewing…
- [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
- [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
- [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
- Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
- Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane
Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN): Increased Float & Global Index Inclusion
- An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) being included in a global index in August.
- Estimated passive buying is 8.2m shares (US$295m; 3x ADV; 10.8x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
- Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) has outperformed Premier Energies (PREMIERE IN) over the last 3 months but still trades at a lower forward PE.
Shining Silver Set To Go Parabolic Powered by Gold, Supply Deficit, & Weak Dollar
- Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
- Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
- Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive
- China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
- Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
- Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.
[WTI Options Weekly 2025/29] WTI Retreats as Supply Worries and Bearish Sentiment Resurface
- WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
- The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
- WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.
Something Is Brewing…
- The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
- These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
- The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).
[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces the Heat as Earnings Projected to Slide and Traders Turn Defensive
- Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
- Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
- Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.
[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Weakest Quarter Since 2021 But Markets Bet on a Surprise
- Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
- Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
- Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.
[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/29] Henry Hub Gained on Better Demand Despite Supply Concerns
- For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
- For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding
- Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
- Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
- Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.
Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Multiple offers received by Galp for Mopane
- Galp has received multiple non-binding offers from reputable parties for a stake in PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery.
- The company is actively engaging with several counterparties, aiming to announce a farm-in partner by YE25.
- These counterparties bring strong operatorship credentials and have prioritized Namibia within their corporate strategies.
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